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Weekly jobless claims set to tee up tomorrow’s US payrolls report

European markets stabilised somewhat yesterday, although the FTSE100 slid for the third day in succession due to a sharp slide in commodity prices, which weighed on the big caps of basic resources and energy.

There was a respite in the big surge we’ve seen in bond yields, which retreated from intraday and multiyear highs after the September ADP jobs report saw its weakest monthly job gain since January 2021, of 89k.

This stabilisation in yields helped temper the downside for US markets, with the S&P500 rebounding from its 200-day SMA, which has acted as a key support area in the past couple of trading days.

The retreat in yields also helped US markets rebound and close higher on the day, breaking a 3-day losing streak, with the biggest decline coming with a 10-point fall in the 2-year yield.

This rebound in US markets has translated into a rebound in Asia markets and looks set to translate into a positive start for European markets this morning as we look ahead to the latest German trade import and export data for August, as well as French industrial and manufacturing production data, all of which are forecast to show weak economic performance for both.

German exports are forecast to decline by -0.6%, with imports expected to rise by 0.5%, while in France manufacturing output is expected to decline by 0.4%.

The US dollar fell victim to some modest profit taking, slipping back from 10-month highs as yields declined across the board.

The US labour market is set to remain in the spotlight today, as well as tomorrow when we get the September non-farm payrolls report, which after yesterday’s slowdown in the ADP numbers, could set the seal on another rate hike in November, or keep markets guessing ahead of next week’s CPI report.

Before that, later today we get the latest weekly jobless claims numbers which are expected to show that claims increased slightly from 204k to 210k. Continuing claims are forecast to remain steady at 1.67m.  

EUR/USD – the next support remains at the 1.0400 level which is 50% pullback of the 0.9535/1.1275 up move, followed by 1.0200. To stabilise we need to move through 1.0620 for a retest of the 1.0740 area.  

GBP/USD – strong rebound yesterday from the 1.2030/40 area with support below that at the 1.1835 area which equates to a 50% retracement of the move from the record lows at 1.0330 to the recent peaks at 1.3145. We need to overcome the 1.2300 area to signal a move back the 1.2430 area and 200-day SMA.    

EUR/GBP – still range bound with resistance at the 0.8700 area and resistance at the 200-day SMA at 0.8720, which is capping the upside. A break of 0.8720 targets the 0.8800 area, however while below the bias remains for a move back to the 0 8620 area.

USD/JPY – made a 12-month high of 150.16 earlier this week before plunging to 147.35 on the back of possible intervention from the Bank of Japan. With no confirmation that intervention took place, any further moves higher could be choppy. Below 147.30 signals the top is in.


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