January 2023
2023 Outlook: Will it be the year of the great reset?
This article includes some fictional analysis. The idea is simple: to analyse the present, with perspective, so that the trees do not prevent us from seeing the forest; and then venture to look ahead to the coming year. The article should not be considered as a forecast, but rather an exercise in reflection for your trading and investment decisions. Read more
2023 Outlook: US markets face a host of challenges
With US inflation cooling for the second consecutive month, market bulls seem to be facing another rebounding tailwind amid a slowdown from the US Federal Reserve. While a Christmas rally may be still on the horizon, there are both economic risks and policy risks coming into the new year. Read more
2023 Outlook: Another choppy year for commodities?
Russia’s surprise invasion of Ukraine in February caused shortages of oil, natural gas and wheat, sending the global economy into a spin. The brunt of the war’s impact was felt in Europe, where nations’ efforts to reduce their dependency on Russian energy exacerbated inflation and increased the likelihood of a recession. Read more
2023 Outlook: Have Chinese stocks hit a bottom in October 2022?
Stocks in Hong Kong and, more broadly, mainland China's stock exchanges experienced their worst slump since the 2008 financial crisis at the end of October, possibly triggered by the head of state Xi's new concentration of power and still unclear future course. Read more
2023 Outlook: Is a new gold rush beginning?
It seems that the hunt is on. The hunt for gold and silver, to be exact. The performance of the two precious metals over the past 18 months has probably been different from what most market observers expected. Read more
2023 Outlook: Are bonds heading for a big recovery in the new year?
The 2022 collapse in the bond markets has been historic. Bonds have not been a safe haven this year. The bond classes closest to the mistakenly named "risk asset" are down around 10 percentage points so far this year. Read more
2023 Outlook: What next for the UK oil and gas sector after a year of bumper profits?
When we looked at the oil and gas sector at the end of last year, it was undergoing a Lazarus-style comeback after what was a near death experience during 2020, caused by a wholesale collapse in energy prices after the shutdown of the global economy due to Covid-19 lockdowns. Read more
2023 Outlook: What next for renewables after 2022 rebound?
In 2022, renewables continued to consolidate the gains that we saw during the big surge from 2020 lows. As a whole, the sector has managed to outperform the wider market, although there have been some exceptions, with underperformance from onshore and offshore wind companies in Europe acting as a wider drag on the sector. Read more
