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FX Analysis

Five Minutes a Day Trading – the March 2019 Wrap

The Five Minutes a Day Trading campaign for the month of March delivered a 54 point profit. We calculated at the outset that the strategy required just seven winning trades to profit, and there were a number of near misses along the way. However there are no excuses in trading, and the result stands.

Lower intraday volatility meant that on four occasions there was still an open trade at the New York close. This is unusual in the study period. These trades were shut at that time, resulting in four partial wins. Although the strategy delivered ten wins, these partial profits reduced the number of points snared. The profitable month illustrates that a planned and disciplined approach to trading can deliver meaningful outcomes.

Above is the full record of trades for the month. Blue prices are entries, red numbers are stop outs, and greens are successful take profit prices. looking at the table, here are a number of observations:

  • The trading often fit our thesis that the first move in EUR/USD in early European trading is false. There were at least five losing occasions where the first move was reversed over the session. The win, plus this appealing shape to trading on some losing days, supports our trading edge in this campaign.
  • The trades for the month were mainly sells – fourteen versus just seven buys. On the daily chart there are three trends during the month; down, up, then down again. The middle, up-trend lasted longest, making the profit all the more remarkable.
  • The campaign was in profit from day one, and only dipped into capital for two of the twenty-one trading days. Profit is the main objective of the trading plan, but capital efficiency is a “nice to have”.
  • In the middle of the month there is a cluster of four wins in a row, although the last two were partial wins. This effect is observable in past successful 5MADT trading months. It may add weight to our theory of the trade if we accept that market behaviour can persist under similar conditions.
  • This is an example of a planned approach to trading. We searched for an edge, back tested against real data, set our rules, and stuck to them. A trading plan allowed us to overcome the emotional pull of having real money on the line, and allowed us to ignore the constantly shifting market noise.

Taking just five minutes each day we managed a respectable profit for the month. Those who followed the campaign will understand how close we were on a number of occasions. Stay tuned to the CMC website for our next Five Minutes a Day Trading month.


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