Monthly Outlook: Banks, Buildout, GTA

November opens with two events guaranteed to get people arguing about the economy. Australia gets the RBA’s rate decision on 3 November. America gets the midterms, with results expected to start rolling in from Wednesday morning, 4 November, Australian time. Read our midterms preview for the potential market implications.

Investors could be forgiven for wanting a quieter start. October brought sharp swings across Australian shares, US tech and crypto, culminating in post-earnings sell-offs in Amazon [AMZN], Intel [INTC] and Alphabet [GOOG]. Earlier in the month, NEXTDC [NXT] had already rattled local investors after delayed electricity upgrades forced a guidance cut. The spending ambitions and merger talks surrounding SpaceX [SPCX] and Tesla [TSLA] gave investors even more to digest.

As November unfolds, Australian bank earnings will reveal whether pressure on household budgets is becoming pressure on profits. AI infrastructure updates will show how expansion plans are progressing, with clients still buying despite delivery delays and financing risks. Then comes Take-Two’s [TTWO] GTA VI launch, potentially one of the year’s biggest cultural events and likely to coincide with a rise in suspiciously timed sick days. Shareholders, though, need players to keep returning, and spending, long after everyone is well enough to work.

Is Australia’s slowdown reaching the banks?

Australia’s major banks report earnings in November as falling house prices and rising unemployment put borrowers under pressure. The question is whether that pressure is starting to affect bank profits, and what it could mean for dividends. Even if the results hold up, shareholders face another question: how much resilience is already priced in?

Our August outlook explored whether bank profits and dividends could withstand weaker loan demand. Since then, national home prices fell 1.1% in September, leaving them 5.2% below their peak, while unemployment reached 4.7%. Falling property prices reduce homeowners’ wealth. Losing a job can threaten their ability to make repayments. For banks, the latter is the more immediate concern.

The RBA’s October Financial Stability Review offers some reassurance: “Most borrowers appear well placed to manage ongoing cost pressures amid declining housing prices.” It estimates that even a further 20% fall in house prices would leave only around 5% of mortgages in negative equity, where the loan exceeds the property’s value. That gives most borrowers room to sell and repay their debt if necessary. It does not pay the monthly mortgage, though, which is why employment and household incomes remain crucial to the banks’ outlook.

Repayment problems remain contained so far: the share of housing loans more than three months overdue has edged higher this year but remains around pre-pandemic levels, as the chart below shows.

^{Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Financial Stability Review, October 2026, Graph 2.3}

November’s earnings reports will help show whether that resilience is holding. Westpac releases full-year results on 2 November, followed by NAB on 5 November and ANZ on 9 November. CBA provides its first-quarter trading update on 11 November.

Two things deserve attention. First, are more borrowers falling behind or seeking hardship assistance? Watch whether banks increase provisions, the amounts set aside for expected loan losses. These can reduce profits before the losses actually occur. There is also some reassurance in the RBA’s latest assessment: strong profits and substantial capital leave banks well placed to absorb a deterioration in conditions.

Second, is lending still growing? A bank can avoid a surge in defaults and still struggle to increase profits if fewer households and businesses want loans. For dividend investors, both matter. Banks need profitable lending and sufficient capital to absorb losses. Retaining more profit by reducing dividends is one way to strengthen that protection, which is why a resilient bank does not automatically mean an untouched shareholder payout.

CMC Invest’s October data shows a shift in trading activity. Buy trades made up a smaller share of client activity across all four major banks compared with September, with the sharpest change at CBA.

Buy share is the percentage of total trades that were buys. Source: CMC Invest client trading data, September and October 2026.

Although CBA, NAB and Westpac still recorded more buy trades than sells in October, the dollar value sold exceeded the amount bought across all four banks.

Valuation adds another complication. As at 30 October, TipRanks via the CMC Invest platform showed seven CBA analyst ratings, all Sell, with an average share price target of A$124. Against a share price around A$167, that implies roughly 26% downside. NAB and ANZ had Hold consensuses; Westpac was Moderate Sell. Price targets are estimates, but the gap at CBA highlights the distinction between confidence in the bank and confidence in its share price. Dependable earnings can still be an expensive purchase.

Are clients buying the AI buildout?

The AI boom has encountered a surprisingly ordinary obstacle in Melbourne: where to put power poles.

Our October Outlook examined the gap between winning data centre contracts and bringing capacity into service. That delivery risk has now reached NEXTDC’s [NXT] earnings outlook. The company cut its revenue and earnings guidance after delays to electricity upgrades serving its West Footscray facility. Customer contracts were in place. The power needed to bring more capacity into service was not. Shareholders must wait longer for the revenue.

CMC Invest clients continued buying into the AI buildout in October. Buys accounted for 86.0% of NEXTDC trades. IREN’s [IREN] buy share was 83.2%, versus September’s 54.8%; Nebius [NBIS] was at 83.7%, versus 55.4%; and CoreWeave [CRWV] at 73.6%, versus 59.5%. Clients were net buyers of all four by value as well.

Maas Group [MGH] recorded a 76.8% buy share. Its exposure includes an investment in and contracts with Firmus, whose proposed ASX listing was withdrawn. Here, investors need to assess both the value of the investment and the earnings from delivering work. The AI theme connects these companies, but the route to shareholder returns differs.

Demand is only the beginning of the shareholder calculation. Moody’s expects combined capital spending by the five largest US hyperscalers and CoreWeave to approach US$1 trillion in 2027. It also warns about refinancing risks for weaker borrowers and connections between companies that increasingly invest in, lend to and buy from one another.

The financing bill can keep running while a project waits for power. Computing hardware can need replacing long before the building wears out. Turning demand into shareholder returns requires cash receipts to cover those costs, so debt maturities and funding commitments deserve as much attention as customer announcements.

TipRanks via the CMC Invest platform showed eight Buy ratings and three Holds for NEXTDC on 28 October, yet targets ranged from A$5.50 to A$21.13. The ratings lean towards buying, but the target range reveals considerable disagreement about value.

IREN’s 5 November results call, CoreWeave’s 10 November update and Nvidia’s [NVDA] 17 November results, all US dates, are key waypoints this month. Together, they will offer a read on demand, delivery and funding across the buildout. Keep SK Hynix [SKHY] and Micron [MU] on your watchlist for a wider gauge on the AI trade. Vertiv [VRT], which supplies data centre power and cooling infrastructure, offers another angle on the physical buildout.

Can Take-Two beat its next level?

Grand Theft Auto V took just three days to generate US$1 billion in retail sales. Thirteen years later, its successor arrives on 19 November, carrying expectations that extend well beyond the opening weekend.

For Take-Two Interactive [TTWO], the larger opportunity is a world people keep returning to. A compelling game can bring players in; communities can give them reasons to stay. Friends, shared achievements and experiences created by other players could make each return visit more valuable.

Take-Two already earns substantial repeat spending across GTA Online, NBA 2K and its mobile games. In results released on 7 August 2026, covering the three months ended 30 June, virtual currency, add-on content, in-game purchases and advertising accounted for 84% of company-wide net bookings, which totalled US$1.39 billion.

But repeat spending does not guarantee profit. For that same quarter, Take-Two reported US$1.53 billion in revenue and a US$34.1 million net loss, including a US$43.4 million write-down on a cancelled game.

GTA VI could change that picture substantially. Based on early pre-order sales, games researcher Newzoo estimated the game could generate US$3.3 billion to US$5.2 billion in global sales by the end of launch week, including pre-orders. It described the opening of the pre-order campaign as the strongest in its dataset. Take-Two’s own guidance provides a more grounded benchmark: company-wide net bookings of US$8 billion to US$8.2 billion for the year ending March 2027, roughly 20% growth at the midpoint.

The longer-term opportunity is an online business that keeps earning after the initial game purchase. In an explicitly bullish scenario, Horizons Capital estimates GTA VI Online could generate US$2.9 billion to US$3.7 billion in annual bookings by the year ending March 2029, assuming 49 million to 53 million active players spending US$60 to US$70 each annually. They illustrate the investment case: the launch brings in the audience; years of repeat spending could turn it into a more profitable business.

Enthusiasm is also evident in CMC Invest’s client trading data. In September, buys accounted for 94.2% of CMC Invest client orders in Take-Two, the highest buy share of any US stock that month. The stock ranked 23rd among US stocks by total orders, slipping to 39th in October, when buys still accounted for 80.6% of orders. TipRanks via the CMC Invest platform showed 19 Take-Two analyst ratings on 28 October, all Buys, with an average 12-month target of US$293.67.

The share price tells a less enthusiastic story, falling from around US$260 to US$190. Leaked footage and uncertainty over GTA VI’s online rollout have unsettled investors, while heavy development and marketing costs keep profitability under scrutiny. AI adds a longer-term question: could cheaper game creation bring more competition for players’ time and money? A blockbuster launch would not settle that question, although Take-Two could also benefit from lower development costs and the strength of its established franchises.

Take-Two’s results call on 10 November Sydney time precedes launch. Once GTA VI arrives, reviews and player discussions on Reddit and X will add context to the sales figures. Look for consistent themes across communities: how well does the game run, are people enjoying it, and are they bringing friends along? Those are early clues to whether the launch excitement has staying power.

Broader gaming exposure options include ASX-listed ETFs ESPO and GAME, plus US-listed HERO. Physical games are having a moment too: Hasbro [HAS] rose around 30% in October, while quarterly revenue from its flagship trading card game, Magic: The Gathering, climbed 34% to US$616 million.

For real-time market updates, charts and insights, follow me on X at @HenryFisherCMC.

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