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Analysis

A short-term bottoming opportunity in Bitcoin

bitcoin

The meltdown in the crypto markets may not be over but the recent relief rally in the equity markets might offer a short-term rebounding opportunity to the leading cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the last 24 hours, the global crypto markets cap increased by US$55.42 billion, or a 36% increase to US$907.98 billion. The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin is 19, at Extreme Fear, which usually indicates a buying opportunity. Bitcoin jumped 6%, to US$20,210 at AEST 1:12 pm in the last 24 hours, according to Coinbase.

From a technical perspective, bitcoin may continue the rebounding momentum in the coming days.

Source: alternative. Me

Bitcoin/USD, daily (Valid for 1 week)

Source: Tradingview (Click to see the enlarged chart)

Bitcoin’s downtrend is still intact, with the price moving under the descending trendline by connecting lower highs from the peak in March (see the above chart).

A bullish divergence between market pricing and oscillators provides a near-term bottoming opportunity for bitcoin, where the market’s pricing is in a downtrend but the lows on 12 May and 18 June in both MACD and Stochastic are at the same levels in the oversold territory. With bitcoin entering a tight range movement since the end of June, an ascending triangle pattern is being formed at the recent lows. This also encounters the oscillators’ rebounding trends, including MACD and Stochastic. Hence, the short-term directional bias is now skewed to the upside, with a potential further push up towards the high on 26 June at around 22 000, while the imminent resistance is at the 20-day MA at about 20,300 (the current market pricing of the edit time). A bullish breakout of the resistance at 22,000 will bring the price to further medium-term resistance at the 50-day MA at around 25, 530, confluence with the Fibonacci retracement of 23.60% (connecting from the high on 28 March to the low on 30 June).

However, a bearish break-out of the low on 30 June at 19,000 may take bitcoin to hit the previous low on 18 June at 17,567.


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