It’s set to be one of the busier weeks of the fourth quarter for Australian and New Zealand markets. The FOMC’s US interest-rate decision lands on Wednesday, while mega-cap earnings season ramps up with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting that day and Amazon on Thursday. Energy majors also report later in the week, keeping oil in focus, with potential flow-on effects for gold. Local attention will centre on the RBNZ interest-rate decision and Australian CPI.
The Week Ahead: US rate decision, PCE inflation, Microsoft earnings
CMC Markets
Table of contents
- 1.US interest-rate decision
- 2.Microsoft Q1 earnings
- 3.US PCE
- 4.Economic & company events calendar
US interest-rate decision
Wednesday 28 October
The market is not pricing in a US rate hike at the October meeting and instead expects the next increase to occur in December. Still, this doesn't mean the FOMC can't raise rates at this month's meeting. However, it appears highly unlikely, and would break with established market norms and expectations.
Nevertheless, a hawkish stance or hints of future rate hikes could further rattle markets, particularly commodities like gold, which have already weakened and slipped below the key $4,000 support level that had been closely watched for some time. With gold now trading around $4,000, a sustained break lower could open the path toward the mid-$3,000s, with $3,600 emerging as the next major support level on many technical charts.
Gold, September 2025 – present
Microsoft Q1 earnings
Wednesday 28 October
Microsoft is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings growth of 14.3% year-on-year to $4.72 a share, with revenue forecast to rise 16.8% to $90.1bn. Meanwhile, capital expenditure is expected to rise to $46.6bn from $19.4bn a year ago. For fiscal Q2, analysts expect earnings to grow 16.9% to $4.84 a share, with revenue up 17.6% to $95.6bn. Capital expenditure is expected to rise to $48.4bn from $29.9bn a year ago. The stock is expected to move around 4.7% after the earnings release.
Microsoft's option positioning is bullish, suggesting that after the company reports results and implied volatility declines, hedging flows could weigh on the stock and create selling pressure. Additionally, option positioning shows a significant concentration of call gamma around $575, which may act as resistance, while put gamma indicates a strong support level around $495.
The technical chart shows that Microsoft's stock has moved back towards its all-time highs but has struggled to break above resistance around $550. This marks the third time since 31 July 2025 that the stock has tested that level and failed to break through. Microsoft’s share price is now showing signs of weakness, with support around $520.
However, if the stock continues its recent decline after the results, the next meaningful support is around $495, consistent with options market positioning. A break below that price could expose the stock to significant downside towards $475, or potentially as low as $465. The upside appears somewhat limited: the stock has repeatedly struggled to break above $550, while the significant concentration of call gamma around $575 could also provide resistance.
US PCE
Thursday 29 October
Unfortunately for traders and investors, the US September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released the day after the Federal Reserve’s meeting. It’s expected to be another hot inflation reading: headline PCE is forecast to rise by 0.5% month-on-month, up from 0.3%, while the year-on-year rate is expected to increase to 3.6% from 3.4%. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%, with the year-on-year rate increasing to 3.1% from 3%.
By the time Thursday’s PCE report is released, markets will have had time to digest the Fed meeting, and the inflation data is likely to add another layer to the market's reaction.
The euro remains vulnerable against the dollar, with EUR/USD sitting close to support around $1.12. If the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance, and the PCE report comes in hotter than expected, the euro could slide towards support around $1.10.
Conversely, if the Fed appears to be more tolerant of the inflation picture, while the PCE report comes in cooler than expected, the euro might rally. The euro-dollar pair could then break above resistance around $1.135 and may potentially move back towards its 50-day moving average, currently around $1.144.
EUR/USD, April 2025 – present
Economic & company events calendar
Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:
Monday 26 October
Germany: Ifo business climate (October)
Results: Airtel Mobile Commerce (HY), Cadence Design Systems (Q3), Nucor (Q3), Public Storage (Q3), Quadrise (FY), Verizon (Q3), Welltower (Q3)
Tuesday 27 October
Eurozone: ECB Bank Lending Survey
UK: BRC shop price index (October)
US: ADP employment change (4-week average), durable goods orders (September), consumer confidence (October), new home sales (September)
Results: Boeing (Q3), Coca-Cola (Q3), HSBC (Q3), Luceco (Q3), Reckitt (Q3), Revolution Beauty (HY), RWS (FY), Seagate Technology (Q1), S&P Global (Q3), Visa (Q4)
Wednesday 28 October
Australia: RBA Governor Bullock speech, consumer price index (September)
Canada: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement & press conference
Germany: GfK consumer confidence survey (November)
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest-rate decision & monetary policy statement
UK: Autumn Budget
US: Federal Open Market Committee interest-rate decision, policy statement & press conference
Results: Alphabet (Q3), Amphenol (Q3), Elementis (Q3), GE Vernova (Q3), GSK (Q3), Intertek (Q3), KLA (Q1), Microsoft (Q1), Standard Chartered (Q3), Unilever (Q3)
Thursday 29 October
Eurozone: Business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment indicator (October), European Central Bank interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement & press conference
US: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, personal income, personal spending (September), preliminary gross domestic product (Q3)
Results: Amazon (Q3), Caterpillar (Q3), Computacenter (Q3), Haleon (Q3), IMI (Q3), Intel (Q3), Lloyds (Q3), Mastercard (Q3), Merck (Q3), St James’s Place (Q3)
Friday 30 October
Australia: Producer price index (Q3)
Canada: GDP (August)
Eurozone: Preliminary GDP (Q3)
Germany: Preliminary GDP (Q3), preliminary CPI (October), unemployment rate (September)
Japan: Tokyo CPI (October), unemployment rate, retail trade (September), Bank of Japan interest-rate decision & monetary policy statement
US: Chicago PMI (October)
Results: AbbVie (Q3), Airtel Africa (HY), AstraZeneca (Q3), BP (Q3), Chevron (Q3), ExxonMobil (Q3), General Dynamics (Q3), NatWest (Q3), Regeneron (Q3)
Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.
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