The Week Ahead: US CPI, eurozone CPI, JPMorgan earnings

The coming week will be a holiday-shortened trading week in the US, with the cash Treasury market closed for Columbus Day. However, equity markets and Treasury futures will remain open. The week also marks the start of the main earnings season, with banks reporting and JPMorgan one of the week's main earnings releases. Meanwhile, US and eurozone CPI reports will give markets fresh inflation data, against a backdrop of rising interest rates across the US and Europe. Taiwan Semiconductor will also report earnings, adding another test for the market's continued infatuation with the AI trade. The US banks share basket offers a broader view of the sector alongside individual earnings releases.

Geopolitical risks remain in focus after Houthis struck Riyadh airport on 10 October, killing at least 12 and wounding more than 300, while also claiming attacks on Aramco facilities. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, though Zelenskyy said the news was a surprise to him as Russian strikes on energy infrastructure continued.

JPMorgan earnings

Tuesday 13 October

For the third quarter, analysts expect the NYSE-listed bank's earnings to rise 16.4% to $5.90 a share, with revenue up 8.8% to $51.3bn. For the fourth quarter, earnings a share are forecast to rise 14.3% to $5.98, with revenue up 9.2% to $51.1bn.

Markets will also watch trading income, expected to fall 18.4% to $5.8bn in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, analysts forecast growth of 3.9% to $5.6bn. Net interest income is expected to rise 12.1% to $26.9bn in the third quarter, then grow 9.7% year-on-year to $27.4bn in the fourth quarter.

The stock is expected to move about 3.3% after earnings. Options positioning near the current share price is bearish, suggesting the stock could rally after results if hedging flows unwind. Put-option gamma is also strongly concentrated around $320, which could provide support, while call-option gamma at $350 could cap gains.

The technical chart shows that the stock has struggled recently and is holding near support around $325. A lower break would put $315 in view. Conversely, a move above resistance around $334, which also coincides with the 10-day exponential moving average, could leave room for a rally towards $345.

JPMorgan share price, March 2026 – present

US CPI

Wednesday 14 October

US headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month in September, up from 0.4% in the previous month, while annual inflation is forecast to increase to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% m/m, down from 0.3%, while the annual rate is forecast to increase to 2.5% from 2.4%.

The CPI report, along with the PPI report due the following day, will help analysts and the US Federal Reserve estimate the PCE figures due at the end of the month. Ahead of the Fed's blackout period, these releases may influence expectations for a rate rise at the late-October meeting. A cooler report would strengthen the case for the Fed to remain on hold until after the midterm elections.

The release is also important for gold. After struggling as the dollar strengthened and longer-term Treasury yields rose, the metal has recovered since mid last week and is trading near $4,200. A sustained move above recent highs could open the way toward $4,250, while a reversal lower would put support near $4,100 back in focus.

Gold’s relative strength index has recovered from recent lows and is now holding in neutral territory around the mid-50s. A sustained recovery would still probably require a weaker dollar and lower interest rates. Unless CPI comes in materially below expectations, this month’s report may offer little support for that shift.

Gold, March 2026 – present

Eurozone CPI

Friday 16 October

The eurozone CPI reports will begin with Germany on 13 October, followed by France on 15 October. Analysts expect German headline CPI to rise 3.3% year on year and 0.6% month on month, in line with preliminary estimates.

With interest rates rising and the euro weakening, the market appears to be losing confidence in further ECB rate increases. The combined CPI reports could therefore be particularly significant, especially if inflation comes in above expectations. Markets are not pricing in another ECB rate rise until potentially February, which may partly explain the euro's weakness.

This could put additional focus on EUR/USD, which has fallen below a key support level around $1.13. Notably, the euro has reached oversold conditions, falling below its lower Bollinger band as its RSI dropped below 30. It has since been consolidating between approximately $1.1160 and $1.1260, with a slight downward bias.

A cooler-than-expected report or a downward revision to the preliminary figures would likely strengthen the case for further declines in EUR/USD, potentially towards support around $1.100. To signal a reversal, the pair would need to break above its 10-day exponential MA, which sits in a resistance area around $1.1290. Such a breakout could open the way for a further rise towards the 20-day simple MA.

EUR/USD, February 2025 – present

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 12 October
• US: Columbus Day holiday, US Federal Reserve Hammack speech
• UK: Bank of England Breeden speech, Mann speech
• Results: No major announcements

Tuesday 13 October
• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes
• Germany: Consumer price index (CPI) (September)
• UK: British Retail Consortium like-for-like retail sales (September)
• US: ADP employment change (4-week average), existing home sales change (September), monthly budget statement (September)
• Results: Angling Direct (HY), Bellway (FY), Bytes (HY), Goldman Sachs (Q3), Johnson & Johnson (Q3), JPMorgan Chase (Q3), UnitedHealth (Q3), Wells Fargo (Q3), Whitbread (HY), YouGov (FY)

Wednesday 14 October
• China: CPI (September)
• US: Fed's Beige Book, CPI (September)
• Results: Bank of America (Q3), BlackRock (Q3), James Halstead (FY), JPMorgan UK Small Cap (FY), Morgan Stanley (Q3), Progressive (Sep), Softcat (FY), State Street (Q3), Vertu Motors (HY)

Thursday 15 October
• Australia: Unemployment rate (September)
• France: CPI (September)
• Eurozone: Industrial production (August)
• UK: Gross domestic product, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance (August)
• US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (October), producer price index (September), retail sales (September)
• Results: BNY Mellon (Q3), Charles Schwab (Q3), Marsh & McLennan (Q3), Newmark Security (FY), PNC (Q3), Prologis (Q3), Seraphim Space (FY), Taiwan Semiconductor (Q3)

Friday 16 October
• Eurozone: CPI (September)
• UK: BoE governor Bailey speech
• US: Empire State manufacturing index (October)
• Results: Citizens Financial (Q3), M&T Bank (Q3), Regions Financial (Q3), Travelers (Q3), Truist (Q3)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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