The Week Ahead: US growth, PCE inflation; Nvidia earnings

It will be a holiday-shortened trading week in the US and the UK, where markets will be closed for public holidays on Monday. However, the rest of the week will be busy, with a flurry of US economic data points, and earnings from Nvidia. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s 6-7 May meeting – when policymakers kept interest rates at the 4.25% to 4.5% range – will be released on Wednesday. The minutes are likely to indicate that the Fed intends to hold rates steady for some time to come.  

Nvidia Q1 earnings

Wednesday 28 May
Analysts estimate that Nvidia’s first-quarter earnings grew 44.7% year-on-year to $0.89 a share, as revenue jumped an expected 65.9% to $43.2bn. However, gross margin is projected to have tightened to 68.4%, down from 73.5% in the previous quarter. For the fiscal second quarter, analysts forecast that revenue will increase approximately 53.8% to $46.2bn, with gross margin rising to 71.7%. 

Although down 4% year to date, shares of the Nasdaq-listed semiconductor maker closed at $132.83 on Thursday, up more than 40% since the post-tariff announcement lows of early April. The implied stock move following the Q1 results is around 7%, based on options market pricing. 

Unsurprisingly, options positioning in Nvidia is bullish, with implied volatility currently around 70%. Volatility is expected to increase as the earnings announcement approaches, potentially exceeding 100% for options expiring on 30 May. With significant gamma exposure built up at the $140 level, Nvidia stock may struggle to push higher. Additionally, a sharp drop in implied volatility following the earnings announcement could lead to heavy call selling, premium losses, and hedging flows that may favour a post-results decline in the share price. 

Technical analysis indicates that Nvidia shares face strong resistance from $135 to $140. If the stock fails to surpass these levels, it could experience significant downward pressure, with multiple gaps potentially pushing it back towards $118.

US Q1 GDP

Thursday 29 May 
This second estimate of US first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could be important because the initial estimate showed that the world’s largest economy contracted by 0.3% in the first three months of the year. That said, analysts expect the revised print to remain at a -0.3%. Unless the GDP revision is even worse than the initial reading, it is unlikely to be market-moving. That’s because confirmation that US growth is slowing would be unlikely to raise any eyebrows.

But should the new reading show a contraction of, say, 0.4% (or worse), investors might move towards gold, which has stalled in recent weeks. What initially appeared to be a double-top formation (typically a bearish signal that indicates a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend) has been invalidated, with gold prices remaining in a long-term uptrend. If fears of slowing economic growth increase, investors could seek safety in gold, potentially pushing its price above resistance at $3,350 per troy ounce and back towards recent highs around $3,440.

US April PCE price index

Friday 30 May 
The closely watched personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, said to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show fairly stable readings. Core PCE for April is forecast to be up 0.2% month-on-month and up 2.6% year-on-year. Headline PCE is also anticipated to be up 0.2% month-on-month, and to have risen 2.2% year-on-year. These numbers are unlikely to have a huge market impact, particularly given that most of the inflationary pressures the US may face are expected to show up in data further down the road. A higher-than-expected reading would be concerning as it might imply that any tariff-related inflation hit will add to existing inflationary pressures.

A hotter report could also support gains for EUR/USD. Rising US inflation might increase concerns about potential stagflation, potentially weakening the dollar. The euro is already trending upwards against the greenback, and provided it remains above $1.12, it could continue moving back towards recent highs around $1.15.

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 26 May

• UK, US: Public holiday – markets closed 
• Results: Joyy (Q1)

Tuesday 27 May

• Eurozone: May business climate and consumer confidence indices 
• France: May flash consumer price index (CPI) 
• US: May consumer confidence index 
• Results: PDD Holdings (Q1)

Wednesday 28 May

• Australia: April CPI
• Germany: April unemployment rate 
• New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision 
• US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes
• Results: Agilent Technologies (Q2), HP (Q2), Nvidia (Q1), Pets At Home (FY), Salesforce (Q1), Synopsys (Q2), Veeva Systems (Q1)

Thursday 29 May

• Japan: May Tokyo CPI
• US: Q1 gross domestic product (GDP), weekly initial jobless claims 
• Results: AutoTrader (FY), Costco (Q3), Dell (Q1), Marvell Technology (Q1), Zscaler (Q3)

Friday 30 May

• Australia: April retail sales
• Canada: Q1 GDP
• Germany: April retail sales, May flash CPI
• US: April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
• Results: Shoe Carnival (Q1)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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