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FX Analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (7 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Toppish configuration below 1.0790 key resistance

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EUR/USD has managed to stage the expected retreat; a whisker right below the 1.0790 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 2 June 2022 (it printed an intraday high of 1.0765 on 3 June).

No change, maintain bearish bias and a break below 1.0640 near-term support (neckline of the minor “Double Top”) may see an acceleration of a potential drop towards 1.0590 and 1.0550 in the first step. However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.0790 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 1.0865/1.0890 (also the medium-term descending trendline resistance in place since 10 February 2022 high).

GBP/USD – Watch the 1.2590 key resistance to maintain bearish bias

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Watch the 1.2590 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the bearish bias on the GBP/USD. A break below 1.2470 near-term support increases the odds of a further potential drop towards 1.2340.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2590 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the recent 27/30 May swing high of 1.2660 before the next resistance zone of 1.2770/2810 (also the former major ascending channel support from 1 June 2021 high).

USD/JPY – 132.00 met, at risk of minor pull-back before new potential rally

(click to enlarge chart)

USD/JPY has staged the expected rally for a new 20-year high, surpassed the previous 28 April/9 May 2022 swing high area of 131.20 and hit the 132.00 resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 2 June 2022.

Elliot wave/fractal analysis and the hourly RSI oscillator (now at an extreme overbought level of 77%) suggests the risk of a minor pull-back at around 132.20 towards 130.95/45 with a maximum limit set at the 130.15 tightened key short-term pivotal support before a new potential upleg materialises towards the next resistance zone of 132.80/133.15.

On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 130.15 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards 129.50 and 128.85.  

AUD/USD – Bearish reaction right at 0.7230/7265 key resistance

(click to enlarge chart)

Since our previous report dated on 2 June 2022, AUD/USD has inched higher but failed to stage a clear breakout above the highlighted 0.7230/7265 key short-term pivotal resistance and staged a retreat thereafter after it printed an intraday high of 0.7283 on 3 June 2022.

No change, maintain bearish bias for a further potential drop towards the near-term support of 0.7125 and a break below it may see a likely acceleration of the decline towards 0.7045 and 0.7000.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7265 revives the bullish tone towards the next resistance at 0.7335.

Time stamped: 6 June 2022 at 8.40pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 

 

 

 


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