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FX Analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (29 Apr 2022)

forex

EUR/USD – Plummeted down towards 1.0460 major support, a potential corrective bounce loom

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The EUR/USD has broken below the 1.0640 medium-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 26 April and invalidated the preferred corrective rebound scenario; it staged a decline of -185 pips to print an intraday low of 1.0470 on 28 April.

Right now, current prices actions are now hovering just above the 1.0460 major support with a bullish divergence signal being flashed out by the hourly RSI oscillator and exited from its oversold region. These observations suggest that the recent downside momentum has started to abate.

Bullish bias above 1.0460 for a potential short-term corrective rebound towards the 1.0570 and 1.0650 intermediate resistances. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 1.0460 exposes further weakness towards 1.0410 and 1.0350 next.

GBP/USD – Short-term downside momentum has started to abate

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The recent decline -210 pips seen in the last three days after it broke below the 1.2610 short-term pivotal support as per highlighter in our previous report dated on 26 April has started to exhibit elements that indicate the short-term downside momentum has abated.

Current price actions have cleared above the 34-period moving average that capped prior bounces since 21 April 2022 and the hourly RSI oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region. Bullish bias above 1.2370 key short-term pivotal support for a potential corrective rebound towards the intermediate resistances at 1.2605 and 1.2700.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.2370 sees the continuation of the impulsive down move towards the next support at 1.2250 in the first step.

USD/JPY – Minor pull-back before potential new impulsive up move

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The USD/JPY has staged the expected rally and hit the 130.65 resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 26 April (printed an intraday high of 131.26 on 28 April) post BoJ monetary policy decision.

Right now, risk of a minor pull-back towards 129.30, maintain bullish bias above tightened 128.20 key short-term pivotal support for another potential leg of impulsive up move towards the next resistance at 132.00. On the other hand, an hourly close below 128.20 invalidates the bullish tone for a multi-week corrective decline towards the next support at 126.30/125.80 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Potential short-term corrective bounce in progress

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Price actions have cleared above the 55-period moving average that has capped prior bounces since 21 April 2022. In addition, the hourly RSI has remained in a positive configuration above its corresponding support at the 36% level which suggests a revival of short-term upside momentum.

No change, maintain the bullish bias above the 0.7095 key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term minor corrective bounce towards the intermediate resistances of 0.7230 and 0.7300 before the medium-term impulsive down move sequence reasserts.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 0.7095 invalidates the minor corrective bounce scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move towards the major support of 0.7000 (major swing lows area of November/December 2021 & January/February 2022).

Time stamped: 29 Apr 2022 at 2.00pm SGT

Source: TradingView


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