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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (27 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Maintain bullish bias above 1.0450 key support

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Since our last report dated on 21 June 2022, EUR/USD has traded sideways above the 1.0450 key short-term pivotal support and started to oscillate within a minor “Ascending Triangle” range configuration.

No change, maintain bullish bias and a break above 1.0590 (upper boundary of the “Ascending Triangle”) is likely to reinforce the potential extension corrective rebound towards the next resistances at 1.0645 and 1.0685.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.0450 invalidates the bounce scenario for a drop to retest 1.0400 and 1.0370/1.0350 (13 May 2022 swing low area).

GBP/USD – Potential imminent minor bullish breakout

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GBP/USD has trade sideways since our last report dated on 21 June 2022 and its range bound oscillation has contracted from 163 pips to 78 pips on last Friday, 24 June which suggests that an imminent potential minor breakout.

Maintain bullish bias with 1.2185 remains as the key short-term pivotal support and a break above 1.2320 reinforces a further potential extension of the corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 1.2460.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.2185 invalidates the bonce scenario for a drop to retest the 15 June 2022 swing low area of 1.1935.

USD/JPY – Mixed elements, prefer to remain neutral

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USD/JPY has ended last week with a bearish weekly “Shooting Start” candlestick and a weekly close below 135.70, the upper limit of the neutrality zone that was highlighted in our previous report dated on 21 June 2022.

Price action has reintegrated below 135.70 after it pierced above it to print an intraday high of 136.72 on 22 June which indicated a lack of upside momentum follow through. Hence prefer to maintain a neutrality stance with an adjusted upper limit at 135.80 and lower limit at 133.60.

 A clearance with an hourly close above 135.80 may see a further impulsive up move sequence towards 137.20/50 next. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 133.60 revives the medium-term corrective pull-back scenario towards 131.25/130.95 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Maintain bullish bias & watch the adjusted key support at 0.6850/6830

(click to enlarge chart)

Since our last report dated on 21 June 2022, AUD/USD has traded sideways and meanwhile the hourly RSI oscillator has managed to trace out a series of “higher lows” which indicates a build-up of short-term upside momentum.

Maintain bullish bias with 0.6850/6830 as the key short-term pivotal support for another round of potential corrective rebound to retest the intermediate resistance of 0.7065 (17 June minor swing) in the first step.

However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6830 invalidates the bounce scenario for a drop towards 0.6760 next.

Time stamped: 27 June 2022 at 3.30pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 

 


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