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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (10 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Toppish configuration bearish breakdown as expected

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EUR/USD has staged the expected bearish breakdown from its minor “Double Top” configuration as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 7 June 2022; post ECB press conference yesterday, 9 June.

No change, maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 1.0710 for a further potential impulsive down move towards 1.0550 and 1.0480 next.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.0710 put a pause to the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 31 May 2022 swing high of 1.0790.

GBP/USD – Watch the 1.2470 downside trigger

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No change, maintain bearish bias and a break with an hourly close below 1.2470 is likely to trigger a potential minor “Double Top” bearish breakdown for a further drop towards 1.2410 and 1.2340.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2590 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the recent 27/30 May swing high of 1.2660 before the next resistance zone of 1.2770/2810 (also the former major ascending channel support from 1 June 2021 high).

USD/JPY – Relentless bull, watch 132.95 key support

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USD/JPY has continued to march upwards since our previous report dated on 7 June 2022 as expected.  It has printed out a series of higher highs and higher lows within its current short-term uptrend phase in place since 24 May 2022 low.

No clear signs of exhaustion for the bulls at this juncture, maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 132.95 in any dips for a further potential push up towards 134.90 and 135.70 next.

On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 132.95 damages the current short-term uptrend for a deeper corrective pull-back within its medium-term uptrend phase towards the next support zone of 130.95/45 before another round of potential bullish movement reasserts.  

AUD/USD – Broke below 0.7125, further potential drop

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AUD/USD has staged the expected bearish breakdown below 0.7125 downside trigger level post RBA as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 7 June 2022.

No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces (risk increases due to oversold condition seen in hourly RSI) below tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 0.7170 for a further potential drop towards 0.7045 and 0.7000.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7170 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7230/7260 (3/8 June 2022 swing high area).

Time stamped: 10 June 2022 at 8.15am SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 


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