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Commodity nerves create a question mark

A solid session for the ASX 200 yesterday and a sharp after hours jump by Apple shares now has traders contemplating the possibility that the index might break through the top, rather than the bottom of its recent trading range.

However, signs that traders are becoming trigger happy about locking in profit after the rally in commodities may steady the ASX 200 this morning. Investors may also be cautious ahead of Rio Tinto’s profit release

At $50 a barrel, the US oil price needs continued good news on inventories given the ongoing potential for supply increases. Last night’s selling reflects nervousness about this week’s inventory data, setting the oil market up for volatility when the official, Energy Administration Data is released tonight.

Weaker overnight commodity prices have again thwarted the Aussie Dollar’s rise above 80 cents. This makes the Aussie vulnerable to any significant downside miss in this morning’s building approvals data. The recent trend has seen building approvals moderate from previous high levels as developers respond to softening apartment markets in Brisbane and Melbourne. Markets are looking for approvals to begin consolidating around recent levels. Any further weakness could increase concerns about the extent to which residential construction may become a drag on future GDP growth. 

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