Sentiment turned against resource markets into the weekend. Copper and crude oil sold off severely following poor Chinese trade data which then and this acted as an anchor on resource sensitive markets like AUD, NZD, CAD and the Australia 200.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 appears to be under distribution, a descending triangle continues to form above 5,655, ad resistance has emerged at the 50 and 200-day averages near 5,735. RSI has slipped under 50 and is falling, indicating increasing downward pressure. Next support possible near 5,600.
Hong Kong 50 has paused between 27, 480 and 27,860 in what looks like a normal consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend. RSI continues to hold above 50 confirming accumulation. Additional resistance in place between 28,000 and 28,180.
Japan 225 continues to trend downward. 19, 485 a Fibonacci level and the 200-day average has become lower resistance and the index has dropped toward 19,320 with next support possible near 19,240. RSI under 50 and falling indicates increasing downward pressure.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to drift back downward with resistance falling toward 21,845 from 21,960 and the pair testing support at its 50-day average near 21,760. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates sideways momentum. Support in place near 21,700 then 21,595.
US SPX 500 is sending mixed signals. The index held support at its 50-day average near 2,454 and has bounced back up toward 2,464 but remains below resistance near 4,472 then 4,482. RSI drifting down toward 50 indicates upward momentum slowing and a downturn pending.
US NDAQ 100 continues to roll over after completing a double top near 6,000. A descending triangle has been forming above 5,900 while the RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 5,855 then 5,770.
UK 100 is still drifting downward within a 7,300 to 7,500 trading range, sliding form 7,400 back toward 7,355. The index remains in a primary uptrend above its 200-day average near 7,288.
Germany 30 has dropped back under 12,300 and its 50-day average calling off last Thursday’s rally. Next support possible near 12,240, with initial resistance near 12,385.
Commodities
Gold staged a bearish key reversal and bull trap on Friday, breaking through $1,350, rallying up toward $1,358 then getting pounded back down toward $1,346. With RSI getting really overbought gold looks vulnerable to a correction with nest support possible near $1,342 then $1,332.
WTI crude oil plunged Friday after its latest rally attempt was contained by the 200-day average near $49.30. The price dove down toward its 50-day average near $47.50 with next support possible near $46.40 and $45.60. RSI has started to roll over suggesting upward momentum is fading.
Copper turned south sharply Friday, kicking off an overdue correction of an overbought RSI. Falling from $3.13, the price broke $3.08 which may become initial resistance and is approaching initial support in the $2.98-$3.00 area. next support at a Fibonacci cluster near $2.94
FX
US Dollar Index broke down below 92.00 to signal the start of a new downleg that continues with the index falling toward 91.00. RSI nearing oversold but confirming increasing downward momentum. Next potential support appears near the 90.00 round number with initial bounce resistance possible near 91.45.
EURUSD touched a new high Friday reaching $1.2100 before sliding back under its $1.2075 breakout point. Support has moved up to the $1.2000 to $1.2020 area. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum slowing.
GBPUSD is accelerating upward, breaking out over $1.3150 a Fibonacci level then soaring up toward $1.3200. RSI nearing overbought territory but confirming the uptrend. Next resistance possible near $1.3270 its August high.
NZDUSD appears to have bottomed out from a recent downtrend and looks like it has started to turn back upward. On Friday, the pair regained $0.7275 and popped up toward $0.7340 before backsliding. RSI regaining 50 indicates momentum turning back upward.
AUDUSD appears to have peaked for now after the pair shot up from $0.8060 toward $0.8125 then gave it all back forming a bearish Shooting Star candle. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off. The pair remains in an uptrend above $0.8000.
USDSGD may have bottomed out for now. Friday’s drop down under $1.3400 toward $1.3345 and rebound toward $1.3420 looks like a key reversal and bear trap. An oversold RSI indicates the recent selloff may be overdone and a trading bounce possible with next resistance near the $1.3500 round number and recent breakdown point
USDJPY broke down Friday completing a massive ascending triangle and signalling the start of a new downleg, taking out 108.10, falling toward 107.40 and retesting the breakdown point as new resistance. RSI falling away from 50 confirms increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 106.75 then 105.50.
GBPJPY has paused in the 141.25 to 143.00 area recently trading near 142.30. RSI sitting on 50 indicates sideways momentum.
EURJPY appears to be faltering. The pair ran into resistance near 131.85 and since then, has dropped back to test a round number, the 50-day average and uptrend support in the 129.45 to 130.00 area, while the RSI is retesting 50. Breakdowns would signal the start of a new downtrend with next potential support near 128.05.
USDCAD could be bottoming out. The pair dipped under $1.2100 but has bounced back following a successful test of $1.2040 Fibonacci support. A hammer candle plus an oversold RSI suggest that bears may be nearing exhaustion and starting to lose their stranglehold on the pair. Initial rebound resistance possible near $1.2225.
