Resource currencies remain under pressure with CAD, AUD and NZD all breaking down or continuing downswings today. Meanwhile, major indices in the US and Asia Pacific are posting moderate gains as the digest recent rallies, indicating continued support. The US 30 and US SPX remain unable, however, to break out to new highs raising questions over whether this is a new advance or a double top.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains under accumulation with the index advancing on 5,935 as support rises toward 5,900. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near 5,950 then the 6,000 round number.
Japan 225 is still climbing with support moving up from 19,000 toward its 50-day average near 19,095 while the index gains on 19,270. RSI clearing 60 confirms momentum turning increasingly upward with next potential resistance near 19,355 then 19,500.
Hong Kong 50 is approaching a retest of its March high near 24,670 trading near 24,600. This test could end in a breakout which could clear the way for a run at 25,000, or a double top with initial correction support possible near 24,500 then 24,220.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has paused just above the 21,000 round number trading between there and 21,050 as it digests the quick move up from the 50-day average near 20,730. Next resistance in place near 21,130 its March high where a rest could end in a big breakout or a double top.
US SPX 500 continues to advance toward the top of its current 2,325 to 2,400 trading channel with support moving up toward 2,372 and the index trading just below 2,390. RSI indicates upward momentum increasing.
US NDAQ 100 is consolidating recent gains and starting to work off an overbought RSI near 5,555. It remains in an uptrend above support in the 4,480-4,500 area with next measured resistance possible near 5,600.
UK 100 looks like its latest trading bounce may be ending with the index falling back from a lower high near 7,300. Its inability to retake its 50-day average or 50 on the RSI indicates an emerging downtrend. A break under would confirm a head and shoulders top and signal a new downleg with next support possible near 7,200.
Germany 30 continues to struggle with 12,500 resistance while a negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum is slowing. So far, the index appears to be consolidating gains at a higher level, holding above its 12,380 breakout point.
Commodities
Gold is still drifting back a bit, trading near $1,265 in what appears to be a normal trading correction within an ongoing uptrend. The price continues to hold above a $1,250 to $1,255 support zone between a Fibonacci level and its 200-day average while RSI continues to hold 50 confirming underlying upward momentum. Meanwhile, the 50 and 200-day averages continue to inch their way toward a golden cross.
Crude Oil WTI has stabilized in a range between its 200-day average near $48.70 and $50.00, recently trading near $49.00 after a post inventory spike ran out of steam. Next downside support possible near $47.70, with next resistance near $50.80 its 50-day average.
FX
US Dollar Index has stabilized in the 98.55 to 99.00 area where a double bottom appears to be forming. RSI remains in a downtrend, however, with next potential support on a breakdown possible near a measured 97.90. Initial resistance possible near 99.5 the bottom of a breakaway gap, then 100.00.
EURUSD is still having difficulties clearing $1.0945 Fibonacci resistance with more possible near $1.1000. The pair has dropped back under 1.0900 toward $1.0885 with next potential support I the $1.0810 to $1.0830 zone near a Fibonacci cluster and the top of Monday’s breakaway gap.
GBPUSD remains well supported as it consolidates recent gains in the $1.2800 to $1.2840 area well above its $1.2715 breakout point but still stuck below $1.2900 its recent high with more resistance possible near $1.3000.
NZDUSD is breaking down today as it plunges for a second straight day. With resistance falling from $0.7000 toward $0.6960, the pair has broken channel support near $0.6900. Next potential support appears near $0.6855 a recent low then a measured $0.6700.
AUDUSD is under pressure today, diving down from its 200-day average near $0.7555 down through $0.7500 and on toward $0.7470 and a test of channel support with its next downside test possible near $0.7420. RSI still below 50 confirms ongoing distribution.
USDSGD remains in a holding pattern trading between $1.3900 and $1.4000 bouncing up from $1.3920 through $1.3950 toward $1.3990. RSI needs to retake 50 to signal an uptrend otherwise distribution continues.
USDJPY continues to climb up out of a rounded bottom. Support has moved up from 110.65 toward 111.00 with the pair advancing on 111.40 and next resistance looming at the 50-day average near 111.65 then 112.15, a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend.
GBPJPY is still soaring, building on its breakout over 140.00 by rallying up from 142.40 toward 143.50 with next potential resistance near 145.00 a prior high and Fibonacci level. RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating.
EURJPY ran into resistance at a lower high near 122.00 and has started to slide in what looks like a normal trading correction following a big rally up from 115.00 over the last week or so. The pair has dropped back toward 121.00 but remains vulnerable with potential support near 120 00 then the 50-day average near 119.30.
USDCAD continues to trend upward with support rising toward $1.3545 from $1.3500. The pair has decisively cleared $1.3570 a Fibonacci level and $1.3600 on its way toward $1.3620 with next potential measured resistance near $1.3700.
