Stock markets have been trying to shrug off yesterday’s big selloff and bearish reversals with mixed success. US indices have been able to bounce back a bit but so far gains have been pretty feeble. The Australia 200 continues to trend sideways while the Japan 225 has been unable to retain 19,000 following a breakdown. Much of the gains in indices today has been due to another rally in crude oil prices.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains in an uptrend holding 5,835 its recent breakout point and bouncing toward 5,875 but it remains stuck below 5,900 with more resistance possible near the 6,000 round number. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum slowing.
Japan 225 is breaking down today, taking out 18,835 channel support, which has become resistance and diving down toward 18,535 before bouncing back into the 18,700 to 18,750 area. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum accelerating.
Hong Kong 50 is bouncing around between 24,270 and 24,350 as it continues to consolidate recent gains between 24,000 and 24,550. RSI falling back toward 50 indicates upward momentum downshifting to neutral.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is hanging around the 20,650 to 20,700, just above its 50-day average near 20,600 and below 20,750 resistance. Yesterday’s pop up toward 20,900 increasingly looks like an outlier with the RSI still under 50 indicating continuing distribution. Next potential support near 20,390 on a breakdown.
US SPX 500 has stabilized in the 2,352 to 3,364 area just above its 50-day average near 2,345 and below 2,372 downtrend resistance. Wednesday’s failure to break out and the RSI still below 50 confirms ongoing downward pressure. Next potential downside support near 2,322.
US NDAQ 100 has stabilized near 5,425 after a bearish key reversal day that saw it break out over 5,450 rally to 5,475 then get slammed for a big loss, indicating exhausted bulls and resurgent bears. An RSI downtrend indicates upward momentum weakening. Next potential support near 5,400 then the 50-day average near 5,330.
UK 100 held the neckline of a head and shoulders top near 7,260 on an initial test and has bounced back above 7,300 slightly. RSI remains under 50 so momentum is still turning downward and it would need to break 7,350 at least to call off the bearish pattern.
Germany 30 remains in an uptrend for now bouncing up off a higher low near 12,120 and rallying toward the 12,200 to 12,240 area. It also continues to struggle making headway with an emerging trend of lower highs and a falling RSI indicating a trading correction underway.
Commodities
Gold continues to consolidate in the $1,240 to $1,260 range just below its 200-day average and above its 50-day average near $1,234. Recent trading between $1,250 and $1,255 within a Fibonacci cluster. RSI steady near 60 indicates a pause within an uptrend.
Crude Oil WTI continues to attract support above $50.00 rallying up from near $50.45 through $51.00 an on toward $51.45, clearing its 50-day average. Next resistance possible near $51.55 then $52.25 on trend. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
FX
US Dollar Index is steadily climbing, advancing on 100.60 from 100.40 after a Wednesday rally faltered just short of 101.00. The index continues to hold above 100.00 round number support. RSI steady just above 50 indicates a sideways consolidation phase continues.
EURUSD is still hanging around $1.0650 with RSI near 50 and a series of doji candles indicating bulls and bears in balance. Initial resistance appears near $1.6080 then $1.0700 with next support near $1.0620 then $1.0585 a Fibonacci level.
GBPUSD continues to consolidate trading above its 50-day average near $1.2420 and the $1.2500 round number recently trading in a $1.2450 to $1.2490 range. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend still intact.
NZDUSD remains under distribution, steadily falling away from $0.7000. Recently trading near $0.6970, next support appears near $0.6900. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward momentum.
AUDUSD is sitting on its 200-day moving average near $0.7550 still falling away from $0.7600 but holding above the $0.7500 round number where support held in a test last month. RSI under 50 and falling, however, signals downward pressure increasing.
USDSGD continues to work its way upward with $1.4000 becoming support following a breakout. The pair has been trading near $1.4025 with next potential resistance in the $1.4080 to $1.4100 range where a Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day average cluster. RSI nearing 50 where a breakout would signal an upturn in momentum.
USDJPY remains in a downtrend below 111.60 currently digesting recent losses and testing round number support as it bounces around between 110.00 and 111.00.
GBPJPY has slipped back from 138.70 toward 138.20 but essentially remains stuck between its 50 and 200-day averages with a falling channel becoming a sideways channel. RSI steady between 40 and 50 indicates a consolidation phase.
EURJPY continues to hold above 117.00 support and its 200-day average near 117.60, trading between 118.00 and 118.30. RSI nearing oversold territory suggests potential for a pause or bounce with initial resistance possible near 119.00.
USDCAD has encountered resistance at a lower high near $1.3450 and has turned back downward falling back toward $1.3400. RSI also topping at a lower high suggests upward momentum could be weakening. The pair needs to go back under 50 on the RSI and $1.3375 on the pair to signal a downturn.
