There were a number of big moves as traders prepared for weekend news. EUR and European indices like the France 40 and Germany 30 soared Friday on anticipation of a Macron win and have been getting very overbought on the RSI. This suggests European markets could be vulnerable to start the new week no matter the result. Meanwhile, beaten down commodities like crude oil and resource currencies like CAD, AUD and NZD have started to show signs of life after getting oversold ahead of China trade data.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 has bounced up off of its 50-day average near 5,820 but remains vulnerable still trading below 5,900 and a double top near 5,965. RSI testing 50 where support would confirm the underlying uptrend but a failure would signal a downturn.
Hong Kong 50 has bounced back up toward 24,500 having found support near 24,375 but it still looks vulnerable with both the index and the RSI rolling over, and a double top in place near 24,765.
Japan 225 is bumping up against 19,695 channel resistance having found support in the 19,450 to 19,500 area. Next potential resistance on a breakout near the 20,000 round number. RSI overbought but still confirming upward momentum for now.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is still stuck below 21,000 keeping a double top near 21,130 intact. The index has dropped into the 20,880 to 20,940 area with next support possible near 20,765 the 50-day average. RSI indicates upward momentum weakening.
US SPX 500 remains below 2,400 where a double top has formed, trading near 2,390 with next potential support near 2,376 then the 50-day average near 2,364. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off into a consolidation phase.
US NDAQ 100 has paused between 5,600 and 5,645 to consolidate recent gains and work off an overbought RSI. Next measured resistance possible near 5,690 with next support possible near 5.575 then 5.525 in a pullback.
UK 100 has regained 7,260 the neckline level, potentially calling off a head and shoulders top. RSI regaining 50 signals momentum turning upward. Next potential support near 7,300 and the 50-day average then 7,355. Support rises toward 7,230 from 7,200.
Germany 30 soared into the close Friday blasting through 12,650 and driving on toward 12,780. Rising RSI indicates upward momentum still accelerating but it’s getting really overbought so it’s wouldn’t take much to send the index tumbling backward.
France 40 broke out Friday, clearing 5,400 and advancing on 5,455 with next measured resistance possible near 5,510. RSI indicates increasing upward momentum but is also overbought indicating potential for a correction back toward 5,350 or 5,300 support.
Commodities
Gold has stabilized in the $1 225 to $1,235 area following two days of steep declines. So far this looks like a pause within a bigger downswing with next support possible near $1,220 a Fibonacci level and next resistance possible near $1,242.
Crude Oil WTI is looking washed out and appears to be staging a bear trap reversal having plunged down from $45.00, bouncing off $43.50 a Fibonacci level and then rallying toward $46.60 before settling back toward the $45.70 to $46.00 area. RSI deeply oversold suggests selloff may have been overdone and a bounce possible.
FX
US Dollar Index is testing the bottom of a 98.50 to 99.30 trading range. The index remains under distribution trading below 99.00 and the RSI steady below 50. Next measured support near 97.70 with next resistance near 99.55 the top of a recent downward breakaway gap.
EURUSD is stuck between $1.0950 its recent breakout point and the $1.1000 round number while RSI suggests upward momentum levelling off. Next potential resistance near $1.1050 with next support possible near $1.0900.
GBPUSD is testing the top of a $1.2860 and $1.2960 trading range having moved up from higher support near $1.2920. Next resistance possible near the $1.3000 round number then $1.3150 a Fibonacci level.
NZDUSD appears to be stabilizing from a selloff having found support near $0.6845 and bouncing back up toward $0.6915. Next resistance appears near $0.6975 but it really needs to retake $0.7000 to signal an upturn. RSI indicates downward pressure easing.
A hammer candle Friday in AUDUSD suggests it may be starting to stabilize following a selloff. Support appeared near $0.7370 and the pair has bounced back up toward $0.7415. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off but the pair needs to regain $0.7500 to signal an upturn.
USDSGD confirmed a breakout over $1.4000 and its 50-day average Friday, rallying toward $1.4050 with next potential resistance near $1.4085 then $1.4155. RSI regaining 50 and rising signals momentum turning upward.
USDJPY appears to be levelling off between 112.00 and 113.00 climbing from 112.15 a Fibonacci level toward 112.65. Next resistance near 113.35 a Fibonacci test with next support at the 50-day average near 111.70. RSI suggests a shift in momentum from upward to sideways.
GBPJPY broke out of a five month channel Friday, rallying up off of the 145.00 round number toward 146.10. Next potential resistance near 147.00 then 148.50 the December peak. RSI confirms growing upward momentum but is also really overbought so it wouldn’t take much to cause a correction.
EURJPY is testing channel resistance near 123.95. It has been unable to get through and with RSI overbought and levelling off, a correction appears possible with initial potential support between 122 50 and 123.00. Next resistance on a breakout near the 125.00 round number.
USDCAD staged a bearish key reversal and outside day Friday rallying up to a new high on trend near $1.3800 before plunging back down toward $1.3690. RSI really overbought and rolling over indicates a correction possible with next potential support near $1.3645 then $1.3600.
