Oil continues to generate significant trading opportunities, staging big swings in both directions through the day. Meanwhile, indices remain vulnerable with technicals weakening as signs of distribution emerge.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues to form a head and shoulders top. Resistance falls toward its 50-day average near 5,790 with the index falling toward 5,735. Next support appears at the 200-day average near 5,660. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates a sideways trend with a recovery sputtering.
Japan 225 is breaking down today with a drop by the index back under 20,000 confirmed by the RSI breaking down below 50 to signal a downturn in momentum. Currently testing its 50-day average near 19,890, next potential support appears near 19,795 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend.
Hong Kong 50 has confirmed the completion of a bearish descending triangle, confirming its 25,500 breakdown point as new resistance. RSI under 50 and falling indicates increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 25,160 then 25,020 a 23% retracement level.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains stuck below 21,550 and it increasingly looks like a double top is in place. Resistance drops toward 21,440 with the index falling into the 21,340 to 21,420 zone with next potential support near 21,300 then the 50-day average near 21,155. RSI indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending.
US SPX 500 continues to form a rounded top sliding away from 2,450 toward a test of its 50-day average near 2,420. RSI breaking down below 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support appears near 2,400 then 2,375.
US NDAQ 100 remains under distribution with resistance falling from 5,700 toward 5,630 and the index dropping toward a test of 5,580 a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend, which has held so far. RSI under 50 and falling indicates increasing downward momentum.
UK 100 confirmed the breakdown under 7,400 the neckline of a head and shoulders top and continues to trend downward with resistance falling toward 7,330. 7,300 support has held for now but a failure would signal the start of a new downleg with next potential support near 7,200. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward pressure.
Germany 30 continues to decline, falling away from another test of its recent 12,475 breakdown point as resistance, dropping into the 12,320 to 12,380 range. Next potential support near 12,240 a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing.
Commodities
Gold has successfully retested channel support in the $1,215 to $1,220 area and has bounced back up toward $1,225. This could be an upward correction as the price remains below its 200-day average near $1,235 and the RSI remains under 50 and in a downtrend.
WTI crude oil has been all over the map Thursday. The price started the day off on the rebound after a plunge Wednesday from $47.25 toward $44.50 shook out a lot of weak hands. The price quickly regained $45.00 following a bear trap washout and has rallied back up toward $46.40. The pair then turned back downward, falling to retest $45.00 as support which has held so far. Next support possible near $44.50 with initial resistance near $45.60.
FX
US Dollar Index failed to retake 96.30 and appears to be resuming its downtrend falling from 96.10 toward 95.60 with next support possible near 95.30 then the 95.00 round number. RSI still under 50 indicates ongoing distribution.
EURUSD remains in an uptrend with the pair establishing a higher low near $1.1330 and the RSI establishing a higher low near 60. The pair has rallied back up above $1.1400 toward $1.1420 with resistance in place at the June high near $1.1440 then the $1.1500 round number.
GBPUSD is still under accumulation with support coming in at a higher low near $1.2900 and the pair climbing toward $1.2970. RSI holding well above 50 confirms the underlying uptrend. Upside resistance in place near $1.3000 and $1.3040.
NZDUSD continues to struggle with $0.7300 lower resistance as the pair continues to roll over. RSI falling away from 70 indicates a trading correction deepening as upward momentum slows. Initial support appears near $0.7250 followed by $0.7200. A golden cross of the 50-day average over the 200-day indicates the underlying uptrend continues through this pullback.
AUDUSD is still dropping back from $0.7700 resistance, recently trading between $0.7580 and $0.7620. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would signal a downturn in momentum. Next potential support appears near $0.7535 where the 200-day average and a Fibonacci level converge followed by $0.7500 and the 50-day average.
USDSGD is trading near $1.3810 a Fibonacci level bouncing around between $1.3800 and $1.3840. Next resistance possible near $1.3885 with next support near $!.3715. RSI steady just under 50 indicates sideways to slightly downward momentum.
USDJPY has levelled off in the 113.00 to 113.50 area near 113.35 a Fibonacci level with RSI confirming trend flattening. It’s unclear at this point if the pair is topping or taking a break within an ongoing uptrend. Next resistance near 114.60 with next support near 112.15.
GBPJPY remains in an upswing, with support moving up toward 146.20 and the pair trading near 146.90 with next potential resistance near 147.25 then 147.95 the top of a sideways range.
EURJPY is overbought but still under accumulation with support moving up toward 128.00 and the pair advancing on 129.40 with the 130.00 round number looming ahead.
USDCAD continues to work off an oversold RSI between $1.2910 and $1.3010 but at the same time may be resuming its downtrend bouncing around between $1.2990 and $1.2930. Next potential support on a breakdown near $1.2770.
