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FX Analysis

Chart of the week – AUD/JPY may be forming a potential short-term bullish base as RBA & NFP looms

Chart of the week – AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY may be forming a potential short-term bullish base as RBA & NFP looms

Short-term technical analysis

Time stamped: 3 Oct 2021 at 7:00pm SGT  Source: CMC Markets (click to enlarge chart)

 

  • Given that the Australian central bank, RBA will release its latest monetary policy decision on Tuesday, 5 October coupled with the latest set of key US jobs data; the non-farm payrolls for September to be released on Friday, 8 October, hence it will be insightful to decipher the latest potential trend bias and key technical levels on the AUD/JPY cross pair that may see significant movements from such data releases.
  • The recent four days’ slide of -140 pips from its 28 September high of 81.32 has managed to end last Friday, 01 October US session with a daily bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern that indicates a potential change in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
  • In the short-term term, the price actions of AUD/JPY have also traced out a potential impending “Double Bottom” as seen from the recent swing lows of 20 August and 22 September. The neckline resistance of the “Double Bottom” stands at 82.00 which also coincides with the descending trendline in place since 10 May 2021 high.
  • Watch the 78.85 key medium-term pivotal support and a break above 82.00 is likely to trigger a potential short-term rally towards the next resistance zone at 83.95/84.20 (the swing highs of 28 June/6 July & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster; 76.4% retracement of the 3-month decline from 10 May 2021 high to 20 August 2021 low & 1.236 expansion of the recent up move from 20 August 2021 low to 3 September 2021 high projected from 22 September 2021 low).
  • On the flipside, a 4-hour close below 78.85 negates the bullish scenario for a further slide to retest the major support of 77.90.


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