The Week Ahead: US services PMI, Fed minutes, Delta earnings

In a relatively quiet week for markets, the key events to watch are the US ISM services index on Monday, followed by the Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday, and then Delta earnings results on Friday. The corporate calendar becomes much busier soon however, as US second-quarter earnings season gains momentum. Activity is set to pick up further with the release of June inflation reports and central bank meetings later in the month.

US June ISM services PMI

Monday 6 July

Analysts expect the ISM services report to show that growth in the services sector eased slightly in June, with the index forecast to fall to 54.1 from 54.5 in May. Market participants will also be watching the prices paid index closely, after it stood at 71.3 in May. With the manufacturing prices paid index falling sharply in June, the services report should provide another indication of whether inflationary pressures are continuing to build or ease, as well as insight into the pace of growth across the services sector.

Following a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, EUR/USD rebounded and has, for now, held support around $1.14. That creates an opportunity for the euro to extend its recovery if it can remain above the 10-day exponential moving average, a level it only recently reclaimed.

The next area of resistance is the 20-day simple moving average at around $1.1480. A sustained break above that level could allow for a rally towards $1.16, taking EUR/USD back to levels last seen on 17 June. That could also bring the pair in line with the upper Bollinger Band®, which appears to be the next significant area of resistance.

However, if the euro fails to break above the 20-day simple moving average, it could fall back below the 24 June low of $1.1350, increasing the likelihood of a decline towards support around $1.12.

EUR/USD, April 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US Fed minutes

Wednesday 8 July

The Fed minutes will give markets greater insight into the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Investors will be interested in how policymakers’ views on the inflation outlook have evolved.

Equity markets are also likely to be watching the release closely. The S&P 500 rebounded over the past week, climbing back towards the 7,500 level. If the minutes are interpreted as dovish, they could help propel the index towards the upper Bollinger Band® at around 7,590, or even back to the 7,600 region, last reached on 2 June.

However, if the minutes are viewed as more hawkish than expected, it could disappoint the market. A break below support at 7,300 could open the door to further downside, with the next area of support around 7,125.

S&P 500, March 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Delta Q2 earnings

Friday 10 July

Earnings are expected to fall 30.9% to $1.45 a share, while revenue is forecast to grow 13.7% to $17.6bn. Looking ahead, analysts expect Q3 earnings to increase 10.1% to $1.88 a share, while revenue is forecast to rise 13.6% to $17.3bn.

The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of around 6%. However, options positioning remains bullish, suggesting that hedging flows could unwind following results, putting pressure on the share price. From an options-gamma perspective, the first major area of support is around $75 a share, while resistance appears firmly established near $97.

The technical chart shows that Delta has enjoyed a strong rally, with the upper Bollinger Band® potentially serving as a resistance area around $97.50. However, the shares already appear overextended, with the relative strength index (RSI) reading around 76. If the stock breaks below the uptrend near $93, it could trigger a pullback towards the 20-day moving average at around $85. A break below the secondary trend line may then open the door to a further decline towards the lower Bollinger Band®, near $75 a share.

Delta Air Lines, February 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:

Monday 6 July

• Eurozone: May producer price index (PPI), May retail sales
• UK: June construction purchasing manager index (PMI)
• US: June ISM services PMI
• Results: No major scheduled earnings announcements

Tuesday 7 July

• Germany: May industrial production
• UK: June Halifax house prices, financial stability report
• US: May trade balance
• Results: Penguin Solutions (Q3), Enerpac Tool Group (Q3)

Wednesday 8 July

• New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest-rate decision
• US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes
• Results: Levi Strauss (Q2), PriceSmart (Q3), AZZ (Q1), Jet2 (FY)

Thursday 9 July

• China: June consumer price index (CPI), June PPI
• US: June existing home sales
• Results: PepsiCo (Q2), WD-40 (Q3)

Friday 10 July

• Germany: June final CPI
• Results: Delta Air Lines (Q2)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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