The Week Ahead: US retail sales, UK inflation, Tesla earnings

Geopolitical tensions remain a key backdrop for markets, but attention will also turn to incoming macroeconomic data and large-cap earnings. US retail sales figures may offer insight into whether higher oil prices are weighing on consumer spending. In the UK, the consumer price index (CPI) update will be closely watched for signals on the Bank of England’s policy path. Meanwhile, US earnings season continues, with Tesla, IBM and Intel among the major names reporting.

US March retail sales

Tuesday 21 April

Markets expect retail sales rose around 1% month-on-month in March, with much of the increase likely to be driven by higher petrol prices.

It’s worth noting that US retail sales are reported in nominal terms, meaning that the data reflects the total dollar value of goods sold. In other words, the report measures the amount consumers paid, not the physical volume of goods bought, so the data may overstate demand when prices are rising. As a result, it’s important to look beyond the headline reading and consider measures excluding petrol for a clearer view of consumer spending.

With headline CPI rising 3.3% in the year to March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 April, real spending growth is likely to have been modest in March.

Still, a stronger-than-expected reading could suggest continued resilience among US consumers, despite higher petrol prices, and may bolster the dollar against other major currencies such as the euro.

EUR/USD, trading near resistance around $1.18 on Friday, may see some movement following the release of the retail sales figures on Tuesday. A robust report could send the pair back down towards $1.16, while weaker data may weigh on the dollar and boost the euro past $1.18 towards higher levels.

EUR/USD, August 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

UK March CPI

Wednesday 22 April

UK inflation, which eased to 3% in January and held steady in February, may pick up again in the March data on the back of higher oil prices. Markets are already pricing in up to two Bank of England interest rate increases by the end of 2026, and the upcoming CPI release may influence whether rate expectations shift further.

Bets on higher rates have bolstered the pound. GBP/USD has strengthened from around $1.32 in early April, and is now approaching resistance near $1.35. A sharp jump in CPI could support a move towards $1.37. Conversely, a weak reading, or signs that higher oil prices are not filtering through to higher consumer prices as quickly as feared, could prompt traders to scale back their rate-hike expectations, potentially resulting in GBP/USD pulling back towards $1.32.

GBP/USD, July 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

Tesla Q1 earnings

Wednesday 22 April

Tesla is expected to report that first-quarter earnings grew 38% year-on-year to $0.37 a share, with revenue rising 17.5% y-o-y to $22.7bn, based on analyst estimates. Gross margins are forecast to improve slightly to 17.8%, up from 17.4% in the year-ago quarter.

For the second quarter, earnings are projected to grow 10.6% y-o-y to $0.44 a share, with revenue set to increase 9.7% y-o-y to $24.7bn. Margins are expected to edge higher to around 18%.

The options market implies that the electric carmaker’s shares – up more than 60% in the past year (but down 11% so far in 2026) at approximately $390 – could move 5.9% in either direction following the Q1 results. Positioning appears bullish, though there is notable resistance around $400, with support near $350. With implied volatility elevated ahead of the release, there is a risk of deterioration post-earnings as hedging flows unwind and falling implied volatility pushes option premiums lower. That, in turn, could weigh on the shares.

The technical chart, below, paints a similar picture, with resistance between $390 and $400. However, following the recent rally, a pullback towards the 9 April low near $340 cannot be ruled out, particularly if momentum fades and options market activity turn less supportive.

Tesla share price, June 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

Market Calendar

Monday 20 April

• New Zealand: Q1 CPI

• Results: Bank of Hawaii (Q1)

Tuesday 21 April

• US: March retail sales, four-week ADP employment change

• Results: 3M (Q1), Associated British Foods (HY), Capital One (Q1), Danaher (Q1), D.R. Horton (Q2), Elixirr (FY), GE Aerospace (Q1), Halliburton (Q1), Interactive Brokers (Q1), Intuitive Surgical (Q1), MSCI (Q1), Northrop Grumman (Q1), RTX (Q1), Steel Dynamics (Q1), UnitedHealth (Q1), Wintrust (Q1)

Wednesday 22 April

• UK: March CPI, March PPI

• Results: AT&T (Q1), Boeing (Q1), Boston Scientific (Q1), Chubb (Q1), CSX (Q1), EQT (Q1), GE Vernova (Q1), IBM (Q1) Lam Research (Q1), Moody's (Q1), Philip Morris International (Q1), ServiceNow (Q1), Tesla (Q1), Texas Instruments (Q1), United Airlines (Q1), Vertiv (Q1)

Thursday 23 April

• Australia, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: April flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• US: Weekly initial jobless claims

• Results: American Express (Q1), Asos (HY), Baker Hughes (Q1), Blackstone (Q1), Comcast (Q1), Honeywell (Q1), Intel (Q1), J Sainsbury (FY), Lockheed Martin (Q1), Nasdaq (Q1), Newmont (Q1), NextEra Energy (Q1), Thermo Fisher Scientific (Q1), Union Pacific (Q1), WH Smith (HY)

Friday 24 April

• US: April Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment indices

• Results: HCA Healthcare (Q1), Procter & Gamble (Q3)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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