The Week Ahead: US PCE, Nvidia earnings, Tokyo CPI

The final week of the summer season brings several major headline events. Whether they deliver a message loud enough to move markets into the autumn remains the question. Nvidia earnings and the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report will take centre stage, while the Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at this year’s Jackson Hole economic policy symposium on Friday may reveal clues about the direction of US monetary policy into the final months of 2026. Markets will be listening closely.

US PCE

Wednesday 26 August

July’s headline PCE price index is expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month, following a 0.1% decline in June, while the annual rate is forecast to ease to 3.6% from 3.7%. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in June, while the annual rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.3%.

This PCE report may carry added weight because it will be the Fed’s final PCE reading before its September meeting. Market participants should also receive a relatively timely reaction when Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, potentially offering clues about how policymakers view the latest data.

More importantly, inflation has remained sticky, and tensions in the Middle East have remained elevated, potentially adding to inflationary pressures in August and September. If the Fed has to reconsider the possibility of raising interest rates and markets begin to price in that possibility, the US dollar could benefit despite its material weakness over the past few weeks. The euro has been a major beneficiary of that decline, recently climbing towards $1.17.

However, EUR/USD now appears overbought. Its relative strength index (RSI) has risen above 70, and the exchange rate is trading above its upper Bollinger Band®. These conditions could point to a pullback towards the 20-day moving average and support near $1.155, or sideways consolidation between approximately $1.165 and $1.17. Consolidation would be the more bullish outcome, while a retreat towards the 20-day moving average could signal a shift in momentum.

EUR/USD, April 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Nvidia Q2 earnings

Wednesday 26 August

Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue of $92bn, up 96.9% year-on-year. Earnings are projected to nearly double, rising 99.3% to $2.09 a share, while gross margin is forecast to expand to 75% from 72.7% a year earlier.

For Q3, analysts expect earnings to increase 82.1% to $2.37 a share and revenue to rise 82.1% to $103.8bn. Gross margin is projected to improve to 74.8% from 73.6% year-on-year. The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of approximately 5.4%.

Nvidia currently has bullish option positioning, with gamma levels indicating resistance near $240 and support around $190. However, once the results are released, an unwind of dealer hedging flows as implied volatility falls and options premiums decay, could put downward pressure on the shares.

Technically, Nvidia has been holding support near $220. A decisive break below that level could send the shares towards $206 and potentially $190, where the lower Bollinger Band® currently lies. On the upside, the shares have a gap to fill near $225, with additional resistance at $230.

Overall, the potential upside appears more limited than the downside, suggesting the stock may face the greater risk of a sharp decline following the results.

Nvidia share price, February 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Tokyo CPI

Thursday 27 August

Inflation in Japan has become a major focus for markets as domestic interest rates have surged and the yen has weakened materially in recent months. Against that backdrop, Tokyo core CPI is forecast to rise by 1.7% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in July, while headline CPI is forecast to rise 1.9%, down from 2%. The readout is likely to attract considerable attention, with inflation-related releases in Japan now carrying added significance.

AUD/JPY is in a particularly interesting position, as the forex pair can be sensitive to commodity prices and serves as a broader gauge of market risk-appetite.

More recently, AUD/JPY has traded within a range of roughly ¥108 to ¥114 since mid-March. With oil prices rising, the pair is approaching the upper end of that range, trading near ¥113 and above its 10-day exponential and 50-day simple moving averages, which is a bullish indication. The key resistance level is approximately ¥114.60. A breakout above it could send the FX pair significantly higher, resulting in a weaker yen. However, if AUD/JPY fails to break higher and loses support from the moving average, it could retreat toward the lower end of the range near ¥108.

AUD/JPY, November 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus other listed company results:

Monday 24 August
• New Zealand: Q2 retail sales
• Results: Goodwin (FY), NAPCO Security Technologies (Q4)

Tuesday 25 August
• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes
• Eurozone: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• Germany: August Ifo business climate survey
• US: ADP employment change, June housing price index, July new home sales, August consumer confidence
• Results: Box (Q2), Chesnara (HY), Dick's Sporting Goods (Q2), HEICO (Q3), Intuit (Q4), Zoom (Q2)

Wednesday 26 August
• Australia: July consumer price index (CPI)
• US: Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders, July personal consumption expenditures price index, personal income, personal spending
• Results: CrowdStrike (Q2), Empresaria (HY), Hochschild Mining (HY), Nvidia (Q2), Prudential (HY), Salesforce (Q2), Synopsys (Q3), Veeva (Q2)

Thursday 27 August
• Eurozone: European Central Bank monetary policy meeting accounts
• US: Jackson Hole symposium, weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: Autodesk (Q2), Dollar Tree (Q2), Macfarlane (HY), Marvell Technology (Q2), Ulta Beauty (Q2), Workday (Q2)

Friday 28 August
• Canada: June GDP
• Eurozone: August business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment
• Germany: August unemployment rate
• Japan: August Tokyo CPI, July unemployment rate
• US: Chicago purchasing managers’ index, Jackson Hole symposium, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
• Results: Beowulf Mining (Q2)

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