The Week Ahead: NZ CPI, Tesla Earnings, Global PMIs

Corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and GE Vernova are likely to dominate markets this week, keeping the AI trade firmly in the headlines. However, inflation and global growth data could still prove important, especially given the dollar's resurgence, which has already pushed the yen to levels not seen in decades, and strengthened the case for central banks to tighten policy.

New Zealand CPI

Tuesday 21 July

New Zealand’s Q2 CPI is expected to show a notable rebound in inflation, with Westpac forecasting a +1.5% quarterly rise (taking the annual rate to 4.1% from 3.1%), the highest in two years — close to the RBNZ’s 3.9% projection. The spike is primarily driven by surging fuel prices (petrol +20%, diesel +51% q/q amid Middle East tensions), alongside higher household energy and food costs, while non-tradables remain firm at +0.6% q/q (annual 3.4%) due to administered prices. Core measures are softening but still sit above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target, raising concerns about spillovers into broader prices despite soft demand and labour market conditions. A hotter-than-expected print could support the NZD/USD by tempering rate-cut expectations, while a softer core reading would weigh on it by reinforcing easing bets.

^{Sources: TradingView}

Tesla Q2 earnings

Wednesday 22 July

The NASDAQ-listed electric vehicle maker is expected to report Q2 earnings growth of 25.6% to $0.50, while revenue is forecast to increase by 13.9% to $25.6bn. Gross profit margins are forecast to expand to 19.3%, up from 18.2% a year earlier.

For the third quarter, analysts estimate earnings will grow 3.1% to $0.52, while revenue is expected to decline 4.2% to $26.9bn. Gross profit margins are forecast to rise to 19.3%, up from 18% in the third quarter of 2025. The stock could see a post-earnings move of around 6.7%.

Option positioning in Tesla remains bullish ahead of the announcement. After the results, as implied volatility declines, dealer hedging flows could turn bearish, pushing the shares lower. Meanwhile, options gamma positioning suggests that $420 is a major resistance level for Tesla, while $380 is a key support level.

The technical picture indicates that a symmetrical triangle is forming, which typically signals a continuation of the prevailing trend. In this case, it implies a move lower. The relative strength index, a measure of momentum, has also been weakening, indicating bearish momentum. A break below $380 could see the shares fall towards the next support level around $370, with a further decline potentially extending to around $335.

Tesla share price, March 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView}

Global flash PMI

Friday 24 July

Global growth has remained in expansion territory, despite rising energy prices and renewed inflationary pressures. However, the US dollar has been the clear winner over the past couple of months, and any signs of improving US growth could reinforce its resurgence and push USD/JPY higher.

The dollar-yen currency pair has already climbed to its highest level in decades, and is now consolidating in what appears to be a symmetrical triangle pattern. An upside breakout could open the door to a move towards ¥165. If US growth data is weaker than expected, USD/JPY could break through the triangle and drop back to ¥160.50. For USD/JPY to move lower, it will need to break below the 20-day moving average, which has acted as support for the FX pair since mid-May.

USD/JPY, December 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus UK-, US-listed and selected other company results:

Monday 20 July
• Canada: June consumer price index (CPI)
• Germany: June producer price index (PPI)
• Results: AGNC Investment (Q2), AMC Entertainment (Q2), Crown (Q2), Ryanair (Q1), Steel Dynamics (Q2), W R Berkley (Q2)

Tuesday 21 July
• Eurozone: ECB bank lending survey (BLS), July ZEW economic sentiment survey
• UK: May average earnings, May unemployment rate
• Results: 3M (Q2), Capital One (Q2), Compass (Q3), Charles Schwab (Q2), Chubb (Q2), Danaher (Q2), General Motors (Q2), Novartis (Q2)

Wednesday 22 July
• Japan: June imports/exports, June trade balance
• UK: June CPI, June PPI, June retail price index (RPI)
• Results: Alphabet (Q2), AT&T (Q2), GE Vernova (Q2), Philip Morris International (Q2), Reach (HY), Tesla (Q2), Texas Instruments (Q2)

Thursday 23 July
• Australia: June unemployment rate
• Canada: May retail sales
• Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement & press conference, July (preliminary) consumer confidence
• Results: Comcast (Q2), Howden Joinery (HY), Intel (Q2), Jupiter Fund Management (HY), Lockheed Martin (Q2), Morgan Sindall (HY), Nestle (HY), Newmont (Q2), Roche (HY), RTX (Q2), SAP (Q2), Thermo Fisher Scientific (Q2), T-Mobile (Q2)

Friday 24 July
• Australia: July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs
• Japan: June CPI
• UK: July consumer confidence, June retail sales, July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs
• US: July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs, June new home sales
• Results: American Express (Q2), Canadian National Railway Company (Q2), HCA Healthcare (Q2), NextEra Energy (Q2), Verizon Communications (Q2)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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