The Week Ahead: Tesla Earnings, ECB Rate Decision, PMIs

US earnings season is set to take a significant step up this week, with heavyweight tech companies Tesla and Alphabet both reporting results. These two will be the first of the ‘magnificent seven’ stocks to report results, and they're likely to start creating the narrative around how this latest earnings season will play out. In the UK, Additionally, preliminary global PMI data on Thursday is expected to begin shaping the global economy’s performance in the face of a worldwide trade war. Also on Thursday, with the European Central Bank not expected to signal an interest-rate cut, what effect might it have on the euro?

Tesla Q2 results

Wednesday 23 July
Analysts forecast the NASDAQ-listed electric vehicle company’s revenue will fall by 10.4% to $22.8bn in the quarter, resulting in earnings declining by 19.6% to $0.42 per share. Gross margins are expected to decrease by 2.2 percentage points from a year ago to 16.45%. The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of 6.8%. 

The stock has essentially been consolidating sideways in what appears to be a symmetrical triangle since the beginning of June, and has more recently been trending higher. The pattern suggests that if Tesla can trade above $320 following results, it may enable it to climb to the upper end of the triangle, around $346. If it fails, the downside could be limited to the lower end of the triangle, around $300. 

Global PMIs

Thursday 24 July
Despite all the trade tensions and threats of tariffs, the global economy remains robust. The manufacturing and services purchasing manager indices (PMI) preliminary data from July may not indicate significant changes, given that tariff rates on individual countries have been extended until 1 August by US president Donald Trump. Overall, gold has lost some of its lustre, especially given that the need for a safe-haven is not in as much demand. The coming week’s data may not give gold much more appeal either. 

More recently, gold has been consolidating, and now finds itself sitting on a trend line. The yellow metal appears to be in danger of breaking – even the relative strength index is showing signs of weakening as it forms a series of lower highs, and appears to be rolling over. A break in the uptrend may be coming, and it could result in a decline back to the lows last seen in May, around $3,100. 

ECB rate decision

Thursday 24 July
Based on market expectations, the ECB has almost finished cutting interest rates. There is no rate-cut priced in for this week’s meeting, and the market is pricing in just one more rate cut for the rest of 2025, and none in 2026. This means the market will be closely listening to ECB president Christine Lagarde for any clues that more rate cuts might be in store at some point in the future, especially if there are signs that the trade war will have a negative impact on the eurozone’s growth prospects.

If there are any signals of the potential for more rate cuts, it’s possible that the EUR/USD pair will continue to suffer, after already breaking an uptrend that was firmly in place since February. In fact, to this point, we haven’t even seen a 38.2% retracement of the advance, suggesting that there could still be considerable downside to this most recent move. It could even result in the EUR/USD weakening back to support at $1.12, which also happens to be the 38.2% retracement level.

The significant uptrend in the relative strength index has also broken down, suggesting that EUR/USD momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. This indicates that EUR/USD could weaken further before forming a meaningful bottom. 

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 21 July

• China: PBoC interest rate decision

• New Zealand: Trade balance

• Results: Verizon Communications (Q2) 

Tuesday 22 July

• Australia: RBA meeting minutes

• UK: Public sector net borrowing (Jun)

• US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Jul)

• Results: Coca-Cola (Q2), Philip Morris (Q2), RTX (Q2), Texas Instruments (Q2)

Wednesday 23 July

• Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jul)

• US: EIA/DoE weekly petroleum status report – crude oil stocks net change, existing home sales (Jun)

• Results: Alphabet (Q2), AT&T (Q2), Informa (HY), International Business Machines (Q2), ServiceNow (Q2), Tesla (Q2), T-Mobile (Q2)

Thursday 24 July 

• Australia: Manufacturing & services PMIs (Jul)

• Eurozone: Manufacturing & services PMIs (Jul), ECB interest rate announcement, press conference

• UK: Manufacturing & services PMIs (Jul)

• US: Manufacturing & services PMIs (Jul)

• Results: Airtel Africa (Q1), Blackstone (Q2), Centrica (HY), ITV (HY), Lloyds Banking Group (HY), Reckitt Benckiser (HY, RELX (HY)

Friday 25 July

• Germany: IFO business climate (Jul)

• Japan: Tokyo consumer price index (Jul)

• UK: Consumer confidence (Jul), retail sales (Jun)

• US: Durable goods orders (Jun)  

• Results: NatWest Group (HY), Rightmove (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they're correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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