The Week Ahead: Global PMI data, Micron earnings, US PCE

The coming week should be calmer after a busy few days of major central bank rate meetings. However, now that the market has a better sense of what a Kevin Warsh-led US Federal Reserve may look like, the May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – could take on even greater significance. Meanwhile, preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings from the US, the UK and other leading economies will give the market its first peek at economic activity in June. On the earnings front, semiconductor maker Micron Technology will be reporting its third-quarter results.

Global June PMIs

Tuesday 23 June

Global economic growth appears to have slowed in the first half of the year. This will be a key focus over summer as markets assess whether growth and commodity demand can rebound in H2 2026, with Middle East tensions eased and oil prices lower.

The PMI data carries extra weight for AUD/USD, a classic commodity currency tied to global growth, Chinese demand and risk sentiment. Weaker global (especially China-related) readings could weigh on the AUD by signalling softer export demand for iron ore, coal and LNG.

AUD/USD was recently trading around 0.700-0.702, down from May highs near 0.718. With the Fed holding a more hawkish bias than the RBA, further signs of global weakness could reinforce USD strength and pressure the pair lower. In that scenario, AUD/USD could retest support around 0.690-0.695, with the 200-day MA currently near 0.685. A break below opens the way towards 0.67-0.68. On the upside, resilient PMIs could lift the pair back towards 0.71-0.72.

^{Sources: TradingView}

Micron Q3 earnings

Wednesday 24 June

Analysts expect the Nasdaq-listed memory chip company to report Q3 earnings of $20.47 a share on revenue of $35.4bn, with both figures more than double those of the year-ago period. Micron’s gross profit margin is forecast to have expanded to 81.6%.

As for the all-important guidance, analysts currently expect Q4 earnings to more than double year-on-year to $25.13 a share. Revenue is projected to reach $42.5bn, while gross profit margin is expected to increase further to 83.2%.

The options market implies that Micron’s share price – which has soared more than 250% this year to $1,134, as of Thursday's close – could move 12.3% in either direction after the Q3 results are released.

As is often the case ahead of earnings, the options market is pricing in a high level of potential turbulence, with implied volatility above 100% for options expiring on 26 June. Option traders’ positioning also appears skewed to the upside. Once the results are released, a decline in implied volatility and the unwinding of related hedging activity could put downward pressure on the share price, especially if the results or guidance fall short of expectations.

Options data suggests resistance may be around $1,200, with support near $900. On the technical chart, below, support starts around $970, where a gap emerged earlier this month. The chart also signals that upward momentum has begun to soften. While the stock has continued to post higher highs, the relative strength index (RSI) has trended lower, a divergence that may suggest the recent rally is losing strength.

Micron share price, April 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US May PCE price index

Thursday 25 June

Economists estimate that headline PCE rose 0.4% month-on-month in May, the same pace of growth as in April. The index is also thought to have increased 4.1% year-on-year in May, accelerating from 3.8% in April.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to shine a light on underlying inflation, is expected to have risen 0.3% month-on-month (up from 0.2% in April) and 3.4% year-on-year (up from 3.3%).

Given the Fed’s more hawkish stance on inflation following the June rate-setting meeting, and the hawkish shift in the dot plot, markets may pay closer attention to this week’s PCE report.

Interest rate markets have already priced in a 2026 rate hike and potentially another at the beginning of 2027. Equity markets, meanwhile, have largely shrugged off concerns about higher interest rates and persistent inflation.

However, if incoming inflation data reinforces the view that the Fed may need to respond to rising price pressures, investors may begin to reassess those risks.

In that scenario, equity markets could face some downside pressure in the weeks ahead as expectations for tighter monetary policy become more firmly embedded in market pricing.

There are early signs that a downtrend may be forming in the S&P 500. More notably, a bearish divergence has developed in the RSI, which has posted a series of lower highs even as the S&P 500 has remained near record highs. This could indicate that momentum is beginning to fade.

S&P 500, February 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:

Monday 22 June

• Canada: May consumer price index (CPI)

• China: People’s Bank of China interest rate decision

• Eurozone: June flash consumer confidence index

• Results: Babcock (FY), Fervo Energy (Q1)

Tuesday 23 June

• Australia, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: June flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Results: FedEx (Q4), Carnival (Q2), Cerebras Systems (Q1)

Wednesday 24 June

• Australia: May CPI

• Germany: June IFO business climate

• Results: Liontrust Asset Management (FY), Micron Technology (Q3), Paychex (Q4)

Thursday 25 June

• Australia: May unemployment rate, May employment change

• Germany: July GfK consumer confidence survey

• US: May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) final estimate

• Results: Darden Restaurants (Q4), FedEx Freight (Q4), McCormick (Q2), Moonpig (FY), TD Synnex (Q2), Wise (FY)

Friday 26 June

• Japan: June Tokyo CPI

• US: June University of Michigan consumer expectations index

• Results: Apogee Enterprises (Q1)

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