The Week Ahead: Palantir results, ISM services, US jobs

After a week of earnings from mega-cap stocks including Alphabet, Meta and Apple, attention is likely to shift in the week ahead towards macroeconomic data, with the health of the US labour market in particular focus. The coming days bring the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday 5 May, employment data from private payroll processing firm ADP on Wednesday, and the official US jobs report on Friday. Alongside that, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing managers' index (PMI) report will offer insights into how the US services sector performed in April, while earnings from companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Palantir will also be closely scrutinised.

Palantir Q1 earnings

Monday 4 May

Palantir is expected to report first-quarter earnings of $0.28 a share, double the year-ago level, as revenue grew an estimated 74.1% to $1.54bn, according to analysts. Looking ahead to Q2, earnings are forecast to increase 89.3% to $0.30 a share, with revenue growing 67.3% to $1.68bn.

The options market implies that shares of the data and analytics company – down 17% year-to-date at about $140 – could move 8.4% in either direction following the Q1 results. Options positioning appears skewed to the downside, suggesting that the share price could rise after Monday's announcement, unless bosses report significantly worse-than-expected results.

If results are better than expected, a reduction in hedging activity may help drive the stock towards a strong level of call gamma near $150, an area of resistance. To the downside, support sits near $130 where the greatest amount of put gamma is concentrated. With put positions outweighing call positions, there is potential for the unwinding of puts to give the shares a boost. That said, some analysts warn that the stock remains overvalued, despite its dip this year.

From a technical perspective, the stock has found support around $130 on several occasions, while resistance is closer to $160. The relative strength index (RSI) has been trending higher, which may indicate improving momentum, although this does not guarantee an imminent change in trend.

Palantir share price, January 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US April ISM services PMI

Tuesday 5 May

The April services report is expected to deliver a reading of 54 – unchanged from the previous month – indicating continued expansion in the sector. The prices paid component may attract more attention. Having risen to 70.7 in March, it is forecast to increase to 73 for April. Elevated price pressures could add to the market's inflation concerns and may influence expectations for interest rates. In turn, this might have implications for currency markets, particularly EUR/USD.

Although the euro has recently found support near $1.1730, the broader trend for EUR/USD remains downward, as the chart below highlights. A break below current levels could open a pathway towards $1.147, though the pair's direction of travel will depend not just on the ISM data but also on wider market conditions.

EUR/USD, April 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US April jobs report

Friday 8 May

Economists estimate that the US economy added 73,000 non-farm payrolls in April, down from 178,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

With the next US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting scheduled for 16-17 June, this jobs report won't have an immediate impact on interest rates, but it may help clarify whether recent labour market trends are continuing.

Market volatility often increases ahead of the non-farm payrolls release, as traders hedge their positions to guard against unexpected outcomes. Then, if the jobs figures are broadly in line with expectations, volatility tends to ease afterwards.

This unwinding of short-term volatility in the S&P 500, as measured by the Vix 1-Day Index, can influence equity markets. Put another way, a reduction in hedging activity following the jobs report could potentially provide a short-term boost for the S&P 500, and perhaps other US indices.

Vix 1-Day Volatility Index, January 2026 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled earnings announcements from US- and UK-listed companies include:

Monday 4 May
- Australia: March building permits
- Eurozone: May Sentix investor confidence index
- UK: Early May bank holiday (markets closed)
Results: Fabrinet (Q3), Loews (Q1), ON Semiconductor (Q1), Palantir (Q1), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Q1)

Tuesday 5 May
- Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
- Switzerland: April consumer price index (CPI)
- New Zealand: Q1 unemployment rate and employment change
- US: March JOLTS job openings, April ISM services purchasing managers' index (PMI)
Results: Advanced Micro Devices (Q1), Arista Networks (Q1), Ferguson (Q1), HSBC (Q1), Pfizer (Q1), Shopify (Q1), Williams (Q1)

Wednesday 6 May
- China: April services PMI
- US: April ADP employment change
Results: Applovin (Q1), Arm (Q4), Disney (Q2), DoorDash (Q1), Flutter Entertainment (Q1), Novo-Nordisk (Q1), Smith & Nephew (Q1), Trainline (FY), Uber (Q1), Warner Bros Discovery (Q1)

Thursday 7 May
- Australia: March imports, exports and trade balance
- Eurozone: March retail sales
- Japan: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes
- US: Weekly initial jobless claims
Results: Airbnb (Q1), Balfour Beatty (Q1), Cloudflare (Q1), Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company (Q1), Gilead Sciences (Q1), Harbour Energy (Q1), Helios Towers (Q1), InterContinental Hotels (Q1), JD Sports Fashion (FY), McDonald's (Q1), MercadoLibre (Q1), Shell (Q1)

Friday 8 May
- Canada: April unemployment rate and employment change
- Germany: March trade balance
- US: April jobs report, including non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings
Results: Airtel Africa (FY), AngloGold Ashanti (Q1), Enbridge (Q1), International Consolidated Airlines (Q1)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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