The Week Ahead: Oracle, US inflation, UK and US GDP

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven WTI and Brent crude prices above $100, bringing inflation back into focus. The coming week features two key US inflation releases, the February consumer price index (CPI) print on Wednesday, and the delayed January reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, on Friday. The timing is significant ahead of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting on 17-18 March. Inflation expectations and bond yields are rising, prompting markets to scale back expectations of future interest rate cuts. This comes as Fed chair Jay Powell nears the end of his term, with Kevin Warsh widely expected to succeed him.

Meanwhile, the AI trade remains in focus as Oracle reports third-quarter earnings on Tuesday. The company has become closely associated with concerns around AI-related spending and corporate debt, so investors will be paying close attention to both the results and guidance.

Oracle Q3 earnings

Tuesday 10 March

Oracle is expected to report that its third-quarter earnings grew 15.9% to $1.70 a share as revenue increased 19.7% to $16.9bn, based on analysts’ estimates. Capital expenditure is estimated to have more than doubled to around $13.5bn.

For the fourth quarter, analysts see earnings rising 14.6% to $1.95 a share on revenue growth of 20.2% to $19.1bn. Capital expenditure is set to continue to increase, climbing another 76% to roughly $15.9bn.

Free cash flow will also be a key metric to watch. It has turned negative in recent quarters and is expected to remain under pressure, with estimates pointing to around negative $5.9bn in both Q3 and Q4.

The options market currently implies that the stock – down 21% this year at $154.79, as at Thursday’s close – may move 11% in either direction following the Q3 results.

Options positioning appears skewed to the downside. That said, with implied volatility elevated, any unwinding of hedges could support a rebound. Based on options pricing, support sits at $140 and resistance is around $180.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has rebounded from $140 on three occasions this year, suggesting that support there is robust, while the relative strength index (RSI) has been trending higher. Initial resistance is near $160, with a move above that level potentially opening a path towards $180.

Oracle share price, March 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US inflation

Wednesday 11 March (February CPI)

Friday 13 March (January PCE)

Analysts estimate that US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, the same pace of price growth as in January. Core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy prices, is also forecast to come in at 0.2%, easing slightly from the January reading of 0.3%.

Friday’s core PCE print is expected to show that prices increased 0.4% month-on-month in January, matching December’s pace. If the estimate proves accurate, it would represent a second consecutive “hot” reading.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday 18 March, inflation at these levels could reduce the prospect of a near-term cut. If oil prices and bond yields continue to rise, potentially supporting the US dollar, further pressure on US equities cannot be ruled out.

For the S&P 500, which fell 0.6% on Thursday to end the day at 6,830, the key support zone is still the 6,700 to 6,800 area. The index tested 6,700 on 3 March and held. A further hold could allow the index to consolidate and potentially recover. However, a sustained move below 6,700 might weaken the technical picture, possibly exposing the index to the next major support area near 6,500, a level last touched in November.

S&P 500, September 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK January GDP, US Q4 GDP

Friday 13 March

Recent data releases have highlighted a divergence between the US and UK economies. While US economic expansion remains resilient, growth in the UK is more subdued.

These contrasting growth stories have been reflected in forex markets, with sterling weakening against the dollar this year. Although the pound staged a rebound in January, the recovery faded as US jobs data stabilised and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were scaled back.

GBP/USD is now trading near $1.3340, as at Friday morning, below the January lows. Prices have stabilised around this area over the past week. A sustained move below $1.33 could open the way towards $1.31, or the November lows near $1.30. To the upside, if support holds a recovery towards $1.3550 is possible.

However, the broader technical backdrop remains fragile. The pair is trading below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which may now act as resistance. Momentum indicators do not yet suggest oversold conditions, with the RSI near 35, while the lower Bollinger Band continues to trend lower and provide support.

GBP/USD, May 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar - Economic Data

Market Calendar - Earnings

Earnings dates are shown in US market time. As results are often released pre or post market, the local calendar day may differ in Australia and New Zealand.

In general:

• US pre market releases appear late evening in Australia and after midnight in New Zealand

• US post market releases appear the following morning in both Australia and New Zealand

As a result, some earnings listed for a US date may be seen on the next calendar day locally. Please check specific local timings where relevant.

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