The Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings; UK, Japan CPI

Markets' top concern – inflation – is likely to remain a key focus in the coming week, with both the UK and Japan releasing consumer price index (CPI) readings for April. Oil prices are on the rise again, heightening the prospect that central banks may need to raise interest rates this year to curb a spike in inflation. On the earnings front, Nvidia will report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, offering investors an important update on the strength of the AI trade.

Nvidia Q1 earnings

Wednesday 20 May
Nvidia is expected to report that Q1 revenue grew 78.6% to $78.7bn, helping to boost earnings 82.9% to $1.76 a share, based on the consensus estimate among analysts. Gross margins are expected to come in at 74.5%. Guidance will also be closely watched. Analysts currently expect Q2 revenue to increase 84.8% to $86.4bn, with earnings set to rise 84.7% to $1.94 a share. Gross margins are expected to expand to 74.8%.

The options market implies that shares of the Nasdaq-listed chipmaker – which, at current levels near $235, are up more than 40% from late-March's year-to-date low of $165 – could move 7% in either direction following the Q1 results.

Options positioning remains heavily weighted towards calls, reflecting bullish sentiment ahead of the release. Current positioning suggests that resistance is near $250, while support may emerge around the $200 to $205 range. Following the results, implied volatility is likely to decline, which could lead to an unwinding of hedging activity and increased share price volatility.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock appears stretched after posting a fresh 52-week intraday high of $236.54 on Thursday. As the chart below shows, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76 (a reading above 70 is typically considered overbought territory) and the share price is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, another possible overbought signal. This setup suggests that Nvidia shares could consolidate sideways or move lower after the earnings announcement, with the potential for support to kick in around $210.

Nvidia share price, August 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK April CPI

Wednesday 20 May

This report could play an important role in shaping expectations for UK interest rates. After consumer prices rose 3.3% in the year to March, accelerating from 3% in February, markets have been pricing in up to three Bank of England rate increases this year, in part based on the assumption that policymakers may be forced to tame rising prices resulting from the Iran war. The last change to interest rates came in December, when the Bank cut the base rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%.

The prospect of higher rates has implications for the pound, which has weakened against the US dollar in recent sessions amid uncertainty over a leadership challenge to UK prime minister Keir Starmer. On Thursday GBP/USD fell below support near $1.345, and on Friday the pair slipped under $1.34. The pair's recent decline may indicate a broader loss of momentum that could leave it vulnerable to a drop towards $1.32.

However, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading on Wednesday could support the pound if markets begin to anticipate a more hawkish policy stance from the Bank of England. In that scenario, GBP/USD could rebound towards $1.355.

GBP/USD, December 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Japan April CPI

Friday 22 May

Economists estimate that Japan's headline CPI rose 1.6% in the year to April, up from 1.5% in March, while the core measure – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is forecast to come in at 1.7%, down from 1.8%. The data will be closely watched as pressure continues to build on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy amid ongoing yen weakness, particularly against the US dollar. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of one or two rate increases before the end of the year.

The Nikkei 225, up 18.5% this year at about 61,400 points, may be sensitive to the inflation data after rallying in recent months. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could increase expectations for rate hikes, potentially weighing on the index and leading to a move back towards support near 59,300. Conversely, softer inflation data could reduce expectations for further rate increases, which may provide additional support for Japanese equities.

Japan 225, October 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled economic announcements and selected earnings announcements from US- and UK-listed companies include:

Monday 18 May
- China: April retail sales, April industrial production
Results: Baidu (Q1), Ryanair (FY)

Tuesday 19 May
- Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, May Westpac consumer confidence
- Canada: April consumer price index (CPI)
- Japan: Q1 flash gross domestic product (GDP)
- UK: April jobs data (unemployment rate, employment change, claimant count change, average earnings)
Results: Currys (FY), Home Depot (Q1), Keysight Technologies (Q2)

Wednesday 20 May
- China: People's Bank of China interest rate decision
- New Zealand: April exports, imports and trade balance
- UK: April CPI
- US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes
Results: Analog Devices (Q2), British Land (FY), Experian (FY), Intuit (Q3), Lowe's (Q1), Marks & Spencer (FY), Nvidia (Q1), Roivant Sciences (Q4), Severn Trent (FY), Target (Q1), TJX (Q1)

Thursday 21 May
- Australia: April unemployment rate, April employment change, May consumer inflation expectations
- Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: May flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) data
- Japan: April exports, imports and trade balance
- New Zealand: Q1 retail sales
- US: Weekly initial jobless claims
Results: AJ Bell (HY), Autotrader (FY), BT (FY), Copart (Q3), Deere & Company (Q1), EasyJet (HY), Investec (FY), NetEase (Q1), Ralph Lauren (Q4), Ross Stores (Q1), Sage (HY), Take-Two Interactive Software (Q4), Tate & Lyle (FY), Walmart (Q1), Workday (Q1), Zoom Communications (Q1)

Friday 22 May
- Canada: March retail sales
- Germany: Q1 GDP
- Japan: April CPI
- UK: April retail sales
Results: Booz Allen Hamilton (Q4), Global Ship Lease (Q1)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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