The Week Ahead: ISM data, Broadcom earnings, US jobs

The first week of June brings a busy run of US economic data, including updates on labour market conditions, and activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Together, these reports should provide a clearer picture of economic momentum and inflation pressures heading into the Federal Reserve's next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 16-17 June. Markets will also be watching eurozone inflation data, out on Tuesday, ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on 11 June, with investors currently expecting a 90% probability of a rate increase. On the corporate side, chipmaker Broadcom's second-quarter earnings will attract attention as investors look for further evidence of demand for the semiconductors and infrastructure that power artificial intelligence.

US May ISM data

Monday 1 June (manufacturing)

Wednesday 3 June (services)

The monthly duo of purchasing managers' index reports from the Institute for Supply Management will offer insights into how the US manufacturing and services sectors are performing. The manufacturing index is expected to ease to 52.6 in May, down a notch from 52.7 in April, while the services index is forecast to remain unchanged at 53.6. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity.

Alongside the headline figures, markets are likely to focus on the prices paid components, which have risen sharply since oil prices surged in March. Further signs of price pressures could have implications for monetary policy expectations and currency markets, particularly the dollar-yen pair.

USD/JPY has moved higher in recent weeks and is now trading above the ¥159.25 level, which has acted as a key support and resistance area this year. Stronger-than-expected inflation signals could make a Fed rate hike more likely, potentially strengthening the dollar. That might push USD/JPY towards ¥160 to ¥161. However, concerns about potential intervention from Japanese authorities to support the yen may remain a consideration for traders.

USD/JPY, June 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Broadcom Q2 earnings

Wednesday 3 June

Broadcom's results will provide another important test of investor appetite for AI-related stocks. Analysts expect the semiconductor company to report Q2 earnings of $2.42 a share, up 53% from a year earlier, on revenue growth of 49.7% to $22.5bn. Gross margins are forecast to decline to 76.3% from 79.4% a year ago.

Investors are also likely to pay close attention to guidance. For Q3, earnings are expected to rise 90.5% year-on-year to $3.22 a share, while revenue is forecast to increase 80.5% to $28.8bn. Although growth expectations remain strong, margins are projected to tighten further to 75.5%.

The options market implies that the Broadcom share price – up more than 40% since the end of March at $426.58, as at Thursday's close – could move 7.7% in either direction following the Q2 results. Positioning remains skewed to the upside, which could leave the shares vulnerable to increased volatility if earnings or guidance fail to exceed market expectations.

From a technical perspective, Broadcom has been consolidating near $425 in recent weeks. Initial resistance may emerge around $435, while a more significant hurdle sits near $450. On the downside, support appears to be in the $375 to $380 region.

A sustained move below $410 could weaken the near-term technical outlook and increase the risk of a pullback towards that support zone near $380. Conversely, stronger-than-expected results could help the shares challenge resistance levels above the recent trading range.

Broadcom share price, January 2026 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US May jobs report

Friday 5 June

The employment report is expected to show that the US economy added 96,000 jobs in May, down from 115,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.3% month-on-month, versus the previous month's 0.2% increase.

The report will be closely watched for signs of whether the labour market continues to cool gradually or remains resilient despite concerns over rising prices and the risk of higher interest rates. With the Fed's next policy meeting fast approaching, the data could influence the path of monetary policy.

For watchers of major US stock markets such as the Nasdaq, the key question may be whether the employment figures materially alter the economic narrative. Unless payroll growth is significantly stronger or weaker than expected, the report may have only a limited impact on broader market trends. A broadly in-line jobs report may leave traders and investors focused on other drivers, including inflation data and corporate earnings.

The Nasdaq 100 remains in an established uptrend and continues to find support around its rising 10-day exponential moving average, near 29,615 at the time of writing. For now, that trend remains robust. A sustained break below this support area could indicate weakening momentum.

US NDAQ 100, December 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:

Monday 1 June
- China: May RatingDog manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)
- Eurozone: April retail sales, April unemployment rate
- Switzerland: Q1 gross domestic product (GDP)
- US: May ISM manufacturing PMI
Results: Cerillion (HY), Credo Technology (Q4), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (Q2), Sirius Real Estate (FY)

Tuesday 2 June
- Australia: April building permits
- Eurozone: May harmonised consumer price index (CPI)
Results: British American Tobacco (HY), Dollar General (Q1), Donaldson (Q3), GitLab (Q1), Palo Alto Networks (Q3), Paragon Banking (HY), Ulta Beauty (Q1), Victoria's Secret (Q1)

Wednesday 3 June
- Australia: Q1 GDP
- China: May RatingDog services PMI
- Eurozone: April producer price index (PPI)
- UK: Bank of England monetary report hearings
- US: May ISM services PMI, May ADP employment change
Results: B&M (FY), Broadcom (Q2), CrowdStrike (Q1), Medtronic (Q4), Veeva Systems (Q1)

Thursday 4 June
- Australia: April imports, exports and trade balance
- Eurozone: April retail sales
- Switzerland: May CPI
- US: Weekly initial jobless claims
Results: Brown Forman (Q4), Ciena (Q2), CMC Markets (FY), DocuSign (Q1), Lululemon (Q1), Mitie (FY), Planet Labs (Q1), Rubrik (Q1), Samsara (Q1)

Friday 5 June
- Canada: May unemployment rate, May net change in employment
- Eurozone: Q1 GDP
- US: May jobs report, including non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings
Results: ABM Industries (Q2)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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