The Week Ahead: Inflation watch, Flash PMIs, Carnival earnings

The coming week may be relatively light in terms of scheduled central bank events, but macroeconomic data will still be closely scrutinised, particularly against the backdrop of higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Inflation releases from Japan, the UK, and the US are likely to draw the most attention, as markets assess whether recent energy price moves are beginning to feed through into broader price pressures. Flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data will also provide a timely snapshot of global growth conditions, while Carnival’s latest results could offer insight into consumer demand trends.

Japan CPI and global inflation trends

Tuesday 24 March

Following the conclusion of recent central bank meetings, markets are likely to refocus on inflation dynamics, particularly as the recent rise in oil prices raises concerns about renewed price pressures. Japan will be the first major economy to report inflation data this week, followed by the UK consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday, alongside US import and export price data.

While each release may have a limited impact in isolation, collectively they should help establish a clearer picture of the current inflation environment. This, in turn, may influence expectations for the future path of monetary policy, especially if there are early signs that energy costs are beginning to feed through more broadly.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has moved below support around the ¥158 level, having repeatedly failed to sustain a move above ¥159 in recent sessions. A break back above ¥159 could open the way towards ¥162. However, downside risks appear to be building, particularly given the pair’s recent break in trend and the potential for intervention around the ¥160 level.

A further pullback towards the 61.8% retracement level near ¥155.35 may be possible if the yen continues to strengthen, especially if inflation data alters expectations for policy divergence.

USD/JPY, June 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Flash PMIs

Tuesday 24 March

The March flash PMI readings will provide an early indication of how rising oil prices are affecting global economic activity. As mid-month estimates, these data points offer a preview of the final readings due at the start of April and are often used by markets to gauge shifts in momentum.

Particular attention is likely to be paid to the prices paid component, which can offer insight into how quickly higher energy costs are being passed through to businesses. Any signs of accelerating input costs may reinforce concerns about inflation persistence.

Equity markets, particularly in Europe, may remain sensitive to these developments. The DAX has struggled in recent sessions and appears to be testing support around 23,050. A sustained move below this level could signal increasing concern about the growth outlook.

Further downside could see the index move towards 22,580, an area that would fill a gap from mid-May. A break below that level may open the way towards 21,760, which would bring the index back to levels last seen in April 2025.

DAX, December 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Carnival Q1 earnings

Friday 27 March

Carnival is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the market opens on Friday. The cruise operator is expected to deliver earnings per share of $0.18, representing growth of around 41.5% year-on-year, while revenue is forecast to rise by approximately 5.6% to $6.1bn.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate further improvement in the second quarter, with earnings projected to increase to $0.45 per share and revenue expected to reach around $6.7bn. The options market suggests that the shares could move by roughly 8.4% following the results.

Positioning appears cautious heading into the release, with options activity indicating a more defensive stance. If the results exceed expectations, there is potential for hedging flows to reverse, which could provide support for the shares, particularly given elevated implied volatility.

Technically, the stock has recently filled a gap near $24 and appears to be oversold, with the relative strength index (RSI) below 30 and prices trading near the lower Bollinger Band. If support around $24 holds, a recovery towards $30 may be possible, where a previous gap was formed in late February.

Carnival share price, May 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar - Economic Data

Market Calendar - Earnings

Earnings dates are shown in US market time. As results are often released pre or post market, the local calendar day may differ in Australia and New Zealand.

In general:

• US pre market releases appear late evening in Australia and after midnight in New Zealand

• US post market releases appear the following morning in both Australia and New Zealand

As a result, some earnings listed for a US date may be seen on the next calendar day locally. Please check specific local timings where relevant.

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