The Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions, Oil, Micron Earnings

Central bank interest rate meetings will dominate the week ahead, particularly as the recent rise in oil prices sparks fears of a spike in inflation. The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting is likely to be the main focus for global markets, but the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled to meet. Meanwhile, US earnings season is drawing to a close, but Micron’s results will still attract attention given their relevance to the AI trade. In the UK, Thursday’s BoE rate decision will be preceded by the latest labour market data, which could be of note for sterling traders as growth in Britain’s economy remains sluggish.

Central bank interest rate decisions

Tuesday 17th March 2026 (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Wednesday 18 March (US Federal Reserve)

Thursday 19 March (Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ECB)

Although economists aren’t expecting central banks to make significant monetary policy changes this month, traders and investors will be watching closely for how the Fed and other central banks assess the inflation outlook following the surge in oil prices. The market’s assumptions on rates have already shifted, with investors reducing expectations for rate cuts and, in some cases, beginning to consider the possibility of rate hikes. According to a report in Bloomberg on Thursday, traders are no longer pricing in that the Fed will lower interest rates this year. Following forecast revisions this week, Australia’s major banks now anticipate rate hikes in March and May, potentially taking the cash rate back to 4.35 per cent. Against this backdrop, guidance from policymakers could play an important role in shaping expectations for the months ahead.

Risk assets such as stocks may be particularly sensitive to a more “hawkish” (ie, in favour of higher rates to curb inflation) tone from policymakers. The S&P 500, down 2.7% year-to-date, has already fallen below a key support area near 6,700. If central banks signal that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer, markets may need to adjust their expectations further. In that scenario, the S&P 500 could face additional downside pressure, potentially moving back towards the November lows near 6,550 in the near term.

S&P 500, August 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Oil markets on edge as supply risks grow

Crude oil prices are experiencing intense volatility on 16 March 2026 amid the escalating US–Israel–Iran conflict, with Brent trading around the $105 per barrel range and WTI sitting around $100. The primary driver remains Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly 20% of global oil flows but has seen tanker traffic drop to under 10% of pre conflict levels due to threats, naval mine deployments, attacks on shipping, and halted movements in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets since late February.

Key factors centre on Iran, including heightened tensions from joint US Israeli operations, such as recent attacks on Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure aimed at degrading export capabilities and deterring activity in the strait, alongside Tehran’s retaliatory measures that have disrupted Gulf shipping and exports. With no signs of de escalation, nuclear negotiations stalled, and maximum pressure policies intensifying supply shortfalls, a substantial risk premium remains in place.

Technically, the sharp parabolic rally has pushed indicators such as the RSI into overbought territory, above 70 for both Brent and WTI. Near term support lies around $95 to $97.50 for Brent and $90 to $92 for WTI, while resistance sits near prior escalation peaks. This week, markets will be watching closely for any signs of further escalation or de escalation, including updates on potential strategic reserve releases and whether shipping activity begins to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI Crude, 1M Chart

^{Sources: TradingView}

Micron Technology Q2 earnings

Wednesday 18 March

Micron is expected to report that second-quarter earnings and revenue more than doubled year-on-year to $8.73 a share and $19.1bn, respectively, based on analysts’ estimates. The Nasdaq-listed memory chip maker’s gross margin is projected to expand to 67.3%, up from 56.9% in the previous quarter. Guidance will also be closely watched. Analysts currently expect third-quarter revenue to rise to $22.1bn, with gross margin set to increase to 69.1%.

The options market implies that shares of Micron – up 28.5% this year at $405.35, as at Thursday’s close – could move 10% in either direction following the Q2 results.

Micron appears to be positioned bullishly ahead of the results, with implied volatility near 100% and likely to increase further for options expiring on Friday 20 March. Once the company’s results are released on Wednesday, call premiums could unwind, and hedging flows may turn negative, potentially weighing on the shares.

In terms of the key levels to watch, the options market points to resistance near $430 and support around $390. Technical analysis suggests that the trading range may be somewhat wider, with resistance near $445 and support around $360. Since the end of January, the stock has been trending lower and appears to be forming a descending triangle, typically a bearish chart pattern that can signal the continuation of a downtrend. Momentum indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), have also been weakening. A break below $360 might open the way to a deeper decline towards $290 over the medium to long term.

Micron Technology share price, October 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar - Economic Data

Market Calendar - Earnings

Earnings dates are shown in US market time. As results are often released pre or post market, the local calendar day may differ in Australia and New Zealand.

In general:

• US pre market releases appear late evening in Australia and after midnight in New Zealand

• US post market releases appear the following morning in both Australia and New Zealand

As a result, some earnings listed for a US date may be seen on the next calendar day locally. Please check specific local timings where relevant.

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