From fear-induced bank runs to regional bank asset liquidation sales, 2023 has been off to a tumultuous start thanks to the US banking crisis. While some optimists might think that the economy is finally in the clear, the truth is that businesses will start to feel the crippling effects of a credit crunch in the months to come. Curious about what is expected to happen due to the tightened lending standards? In this article, we will explore what is a credit crunch, how a potential credit crisis could be on the cards and how it’ll likely impact different stakeholders in today’s economy so you’ll know the steps to take.
What is a Credit Crunch?
A credit crunch is a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from banks. It typically occurs when lenders become cautious about giving out loans due to a decrease in the value of the collateral and a rise in loan defaults.
When a credit crunch occurs, banks become more stringent about who they lend money to and how much they lend. The interest rates charged on loans may also increase as lenders look to compensate for any potential risks associated with the loan. This makes it harder for borrowers to access credit and can lead to a cascading effect on consumer spending and employment levels. For many, the definition of a credit crunch certainly seems familiar in the aftermath of the US banking crisis. Thanks to the series of bank runs on First Republic and other US regional banks, loan-to-deposit ratios are being scrutinised more than ever. Keen to find out how a credit crunch will impact the economy and its various stakeholders? The following section will cover the extent of how consumers and businesses will be affected and the credit crunch’s economic impact.
The Impact of the US Banking Crisis on Consumers
More Consumer Loan Delinquencies & Defaults
In times of credit crunch, banks could maximise their revenue levels by raising interest rates or shortening loan repayment periods. Unfortunately, this might lead to a surge in loan delinquencies and defaults as borrowers cannot make payments because of the added financial strain on borrowers, thereby putting them through hardship. The negative effect will lead to the devastating consequences of lost jobs and poverty, primarily affecting those without adequate savings. These effects aren't limited to individuals as the snowballing of loan delinquencies and defaults could cripple the economy in the long run as the average consumer credit rating declines.
Reduced Consumer Spending
When a credit crunch occurs, the resulting tightening of credit conditions and reduced availability of consumer loans will impact the average consumer in numerous ways. This is because the lenders themselves are facing a crisis in terms of liquidity, causing them to either scale back lending or increase the interest rates on loans to balance their books. From mortgages and auto loans to personal lines of credit, such big-ticket purchases will be more challenging to finance thanks to the credit crunch. As a result, consumers may have less access to credit and must rely on cash or other forms of payment to finance their purchases, which can be difficult for many people. This can lead to reduced consumer spending, which can hamper economic growth, as consumer spending is a key driver of the economy.
The Impact of the US Banking Crisis on Businesses
The End of Easy Access to Credit
In order to ensure they meet the minimum reserve ratio, banks are becoming increasingly cautious with their lending and to whom they loan their money. With payment delinquencies on the rise, it’s difficult to fault banks who are being more prudent with their lending when gauging credit scores. From requiring more detailed collateral to charging higher interest payments, it has become extremely tough for the average small and medium business to secure financing for their operations. This will inevitably make it harder for business owners to access capital to fund expansion ideas and business development initiatives. This is a death sentence for capital-intensive, pre-revenue startups and businesses, as the lack of funding will eventually lead to their demise. As such, it is vital to find other financing alternatives which may be available and pursue those options further.
The Need to Access Alternative Lines of Credit
Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom for businesses struggling to secure financing from traditional banks. In contrast to the 2008 financial crisis, the options today for business owners looking for alternatives to bank loans or lines of credit are numerous. From online peer-to-peer lending platforms and invoice factoring companies to merchant cash advances and crowdfunding platforms, a diverse range of financing instruments are available. Each offers unique advantages to businesses seeking short-term working capital or longer-term financing. For instance, companies looking for immediate liquidity may prefer merchant cash advances, whereas startups or innovative ventures with a broader reach may opt for crowdfunding platforms instead. In any case, these alternative financing solutions can be just as practical as traditional funding sources, if not more, for entrepreneurs seeking to build and grow their businesses.
The Impact of the US Banking Crisis on the Economy
The credit crunch had profound economic consequences, affecting various sectors and contributing to a wider economic downturn.
A Decline in Economic Activity
As businesses face immense challenges in expanding their operations or hiring employees, the limitations of credit access can have crippling effects. This leads to a decline in business activity and can trigger a cascade of adverse effects across the economy. The decline in business activity adversely impacts revenue, which leads to reduced spending by businesses and consumers. This can also lower the economic output, making it difficult for the overall economy to continue its recovery.
Rise in Unemployment
As previously mentioned, businesses facing financial constraints and reduced access to credit will likely be compelled to cut costs and scale down their business operations. Unfortunately, when most businesses undergo such cost-cutting measures, this can propagate long-lasting economic damage. For instance, layoffs can result in increased unemployment rates and can cause a decrease in consumer confidence and spending power, further perpetuating a downward spiral. This could lead to layoffs and increased unemployment rates, which will kickstart a cycle of economic weakness due to lowered consumer confidence and spending power.
Who Is Hit the Hardest During a Credit Crunch?
While it’ll be hard to identify the impact of the credit crunch on individual businesses since their exposure to the financial markets is unknown, it’s likely that we can gauge the effect of the credit crunch on specific industries and sectors. With high-interest rates, low consumer spending and limited access to credit, sectors such as financial services, automotive manufacturers and real estate have the potential to be hit the hardest.
Additionally, companies with an over-reliance on equity raising will be impacted heavily because of the harsh macroeconomic environment. This includes cash-burning startups, companies with limited revenue streams and enterprises that are not yet profitable.
How to Survive a Credit Crunch as an Investor or Trader
During a credit crunch in the economy, investors and traders could focus on capital preservation to ride out the storm and sustain their portfolios through this turbulence. For investors to achieve this, they might want to consider alternative investment strategies and instruments that offer downside protection. Instead, they can opt for more conservative investments and those less prone to large fluctuations. These may include highly diversified products, defensive stocks, fixed-income investments and cash equivalents Additionally, diversifying their portfolios across different asset classes can help spread risk.
On the trading side of things, traders can consider implementing robust risk management practices such as stop-loss orders, monitoring debt ratios and hedging with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to help mitigate the risk. Adhering to stricter financial discipline can also aid in better preparation for a market downturn. Overall, a combination of prudent investment decisions, diversified portfolios, and risk management strategies can provide a solid defence against a credit crunch in the economy.
The Bottom Line
While the US regional banking crisis seems to be over at this point, shrewd investors and traders should still be wary of an upcoming credit crunch that can scan significantly impact the economy. From the reduced availability of credit to increased interest rates impacting individuals and businesses, the economy will likely be stuck in a rut as it seeks to restart its growth engine. For investors and traders, the most important step one can take to prepare for a potential credit crunch is to not be overwhelmed by the volatility. Instead, there must be a plan so traders and investors can carry out sound investment decisions and taking the necessary risk management precautions.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.