Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 3 November.
The US government will remain shut down, meaning official government data will remain unavailable to market participants. However, some private-sector reports are due this week, which could provide a sense of what is happening in the economy. Additionally, there will be a Bank of England rate decision later in the week, and the US earnings season will continue, although most of the major mega-cap companies have now reported.
US manufacturing & services data
Monday 3 November (ISM manufacturing PMI)
Wednesday 5 November (ISM services PMI)
The purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will offer insights into the health of the US manufacturing and services sectors. Taken together with the private payroll report for October from HR services firm ADP, due out on Wednesday, traders should be able to piece together an understanding of the health of the US economy at a time when government data has been suspended amid the ongoing federal shutdown. The three reports could impact currency markets, particularly USD/JPY after the Bank of Japan again stalled on raising rates.
With the yen weakening against the dollar, USD/JPY is approaching a key resistance level around ¥154.50. Further yen weakness could push the pair towards ¥158. That said, the pair’s relative strength index (RSI) is nearing 70, a level associated with overbought conditions. This suggests that USD/JPY may consolidate around ¥154.50 in the near term. Strong US data – on economic activity and jobs – could then drive additional yen depreciation.
USD/JPY CHART AUGUST 2024 - OCTOBER 2025
Palantir Q3 earnings
Monday 3 November
Analysts expect Palantir to report that third-quarter earnings grew 68.4% year-on-year to $0.17 a share, on revenue growth of more than 50% to $1.1bn. Looking ahead to Q4, analysts forecast earnings of $0.19 a share, up 36.3%, and revenue of $1.2bn, up 43.9%. The options market is pricing in a 10% post-earnings move for the Palantir share price, which has soared 170% this year to trade at more than $202, as of Friday.
Implied volatility levels for the Nasdaq -listed technology company are running high, and could exceed 100% for options expiring on 7 November by the time the company reports after the close of trading on Monday. Although option positioning is very bullish, extreme bullish positioning can – as we’ve seen in similar cases before – lead to negative market-maker flows as implied volatility declines and as call premiums decay, potentially exerting downward pressure on the shares.
If the stock manages to stay near current levels, there appears to be room for it to rise towards $210. However, a bearish divergence has formed on the RSI, which is posting lower highs while the share price has made higher lows. This setup suggests that earnings could act as a catalyst for a potential reversal, which might see the shares fall back towards the lower end of their trading range, around $160, or possibly as low as $145.
PALANTIR TEHCNOLOGIES INC. CHART, JANUARY 2025- OCTOBER 2025
Bank of England rate decision
Thursday 6 November
While the Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 4% on Thursday, markets are still pricing in a roughly 90% chance of a cut by April 2026. As a result, traders will be listening closely for signals from policymakers at the upcoming meeting. Any indication of a rate cut in the near future could have a significant negative impact on the British pound, particularly now that it appears the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as aggressively as markets had initially anticipated. The pound is currently on the verge of breaking a major support level around $1.31 – a key area to watch. If a break occurs, GBP/USD could slide towards $1.275.
GBP/USD CHART, JANUARY 2025 - OCTOBER 2025
Economic and company events calendar
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