The Week Ahead: US retail sales, GDP and PCE; Australia CPI; Dell earnings

It will be a holiday-shortened trading week in the US, with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Markets will also close early on Friday, and with limited trading days, volatility may rise and global liquidity could be thinner than usual. For Australia and New Zealand, the main highlights are Australia’s October CPI and the RBNZ interest rate decision. These releases may influence AUD and NZD, especially as trading conditions are affected by the US holiday schedule.

Dell Q3 earnings

Tuesday 25 November

Analysts expect Dell to report that third-quarter earnings increased 15% year-on-year to $2.47 a share as revenue rose an estimated 11.3% to $27.1bn. Looking ahead to Q4, analysts forecast earnings growth of 20.4% to $3.23 a share, with revenue rising 15.3% to $27.6bn. 

Options markets imply traders are expecting the technology firm’s share price to move by an average of 9.5% in either direction after the earnings announcement. Dell shares fell 1.7% on Thursday 20 November to end the day at $117.40. So far in 2025, the stock – which is a component of the Nasdaq 100 – has gained just 0.8%. But that essentially sideways shift could be about to take on a different shape. 

While implied volatility for Dell options expiring on Friday 28 November is extremely high, overall option positioning in Dell is quite bearish. This suggests that, once Dell has reported its results, the shares could rise – something we haven’t seen very often in discussions of possible earnings outcomes.

Technical analysis indicates that Dell shares are resting on a crucial support level near $118. If this support breaks, the stock could drop to $108. However, it is worth noting that the stock is approaching oversold levels, with a relative strength index (RSI) reading of 34 and the share price near the lower Bollinger Band. A dip before the earnings announcement, followed by a rebound afterwards, remains possible. But if the $118 area holds, the stock could rally back towards its mid-November level of roughly $130. 

Dell share price, September 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US economic data

Tuesday 25 November and Wednesday 26 November

With the US government shutdown now over, the economic data taps are being turned back on and numbers are going to gush out. A belated jobs report released on Thursday 20 November showed that the US economy added a greater-than-expected 119,000 jobs in September. In the coming week we can look forward to September retail sales and producer price data on Tuesday, followed by the October personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and Q3 GDP figures on Wednesday  

Although some of these reports are more than a month old, they remain important because they will shape the Federal Reserve's thinking on whether to proceed with an interest rate cut in December. Currently, the market is pricing in a roughly 67% chance that the Fed will cut rates next month. The odds have fluctuated over the past few weeks, but have swung back in favour of a cut after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that he sees room for the central bank to cut interest rates again in the near term.

The chatter around rate cuts is likely to continue to impact GBP/USD. As already mentioned, the British pound has weakened amid uncertainty around the upcoming Budget, and it could fall further versus the dollar if upcoming data releases show the US economy to be performing well. The pair has dipped below support at $1.31 and crucially, from a technical analysis perspective, it has broken to the downside of a bear flag – a move that typically signals the resumption of the preceding downtrend. An extension of this pattern could imply a slide towards approximately $1.2788, with stronger support near $1.2715.

GBP/USD, December 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Australia, Tokyo inflation

Wednesday 26 November (Australia October CPI)

Thursday 27 November (Tokyo November CPI

This pair of consumer price index (CPI) readings could have an impact on the Australian dollar-Japanese yen currency cross. AUD/JPY is often seen as a global risk-on/risk-off gauge, since AUD is sensitive to global growth and investor optimism, while JPY is a traditional safe-haven currency that strengthens during times of uncertainty. When global risk appetite increases (risk-on), AUD/JPY tends to rise as traders buy the growth-sensitive AUD and sell JPY. Conversely, when fear prevails (risk-off), investors flee to the safe-haven JPY, selling AUD and causing AUD/JPY to fall. 

In the past two weeks, AUD/JPY has risen from around ¥99 per Australian dollar to around ¥101, largely due to political issues in Japan. Anything that further strengthens AUD could put additional pressure on JPY. For example, if the Tokyo CPI print – widely considered a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading – were to come in hotter than expected, it could push bond yields higher and increase market concerns about the fiscal package that Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi is looking to implement. That could drive AUD/JPY even higher. 

Currently, AUD/JPY is approaching a key resistance level around ¥102.50. If it breaks through that level, it could lead to a significant weakening of the yen, potentially sending the pair up towards ¥105.50. 

AUD/JPY, March 2023 - present 

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar

Wednesday 26 November

Thursday 27 November

Friday 28 November

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