The Week Ahead: US PCE, GDP and jobs; Big Tech earnings

The coming week could be one of the most important of 2025. First, we’ll get a glut of key economic data from the US, including the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (a closely watched measure of inflation), first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the April ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), and the April non-farm payrolls print. 

Second, potentially market-moving announcements are due from other major economies, including China’s April manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Thursday, and the eurozone’s April consumer price index reading on Friday. 

Third, and perhaps even more significantly, we’ll get the latest salvos in a crucial earnings season – look out for results from tech giants Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, among others. Expect generally positive numbers for the quarter gone, and grave warnings of the uncertain times ahead. It could be a week that shapes the financial markets’ direction of travel for some time.

US Q1 GDP and March PCE price index

Wednesday 30 April 
The GDP figures, due at 1.30pm (UK time) on Wednesday, are expected to show that the US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, down from 2.4% in the previous quarter. Additionally, we’ll get the employment cost index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred wage gauge, which is expected to be up 0.9%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Then, at 3pm (UK time), the PCE report is expected to show that the core measure – said to be the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator – rose 0.1% month-on-month in March, down from 0.4% in February.

With multiple data points arriving at different times, the market may become volatile. And with the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision due in the early hours of Thursday morning (in the UK), there could be significant overnight movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate. The Japanese yen recently tested a critical support level at ¥140, before depreciating slightly to trade at ¥143 per dollar on Friday morning. If the yen retests and breaks through support at ¥140, it could strengthen considerably, potentially moving back towards ¥135. Regardless of the coming week’s US economic data, if the Bank of Japan signals a readiness to raise interest rates, the yen could appreciate. That could potentially push USD/JPY through support and below ¥140 in the near term.

Meta Platforms Q1 results

Wednesday 30 April 
Analysts estimate that Meta Platforms’ first-quarter revenue grew 13.5% to $41.4bn, though earnings are expected to have increased just 1% to $5.28 a share. Looking ahead, analysts forecast second-quarter revenue growth of 12.7% to $43.1bn. The options market is pricing in a nearly 8% post-Q1 earnings move higher or lower.

Shares of the social media company, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, have fallen 14.9% in the past month to $533.15, as of Thursday’s close. That compares to share price declines of 9.3% for Amazon, 6.9% for Apple and 2.0% for Microsoft over the same period. 

Despite the stock’s recent struggles, options positioning in Meta appears bullish, suggesting that investors anticipate a share price rally following the Q1 results. For this to happen, though, the company many need to deliver better-than-expected results and strong guidance. Anything short of that and the resetting of implied volatility could trigger market-maker hedging flows, pushing the shares lower.

Although Meta stock has been in a steep downtrend since posting a record intraday high of just over $740 on 14 February, it is holding above support around $475. If the Nasdaq-listed company reports a positive surprise on earnings and guidance, the shares could rally towards resistance near $593 in the medium term. Conversely, if the results disappoint, hedging flows might push the shares back to the $475 support level, with a break below that area potentially sending the stock down towards $442. 

US April jobs report

Friday 2 May
Economists estimate that the US economy added 130,000 jobs in April, down from 228,000 new payrolls in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, and average earnings growth is forecast to have stayed at 0.3% month-on-month.

The jobs report is likely to generate market jitters, given its potential implications for the Fed’s rate-setting meeting on 6-7 May and any early indication of the trade war’s impact on hiring. Implied volatility is expected to rise significantly before the non-farm payrolls print is published, a pattern that has played out on numerous occasions around this event in the past. 

A key gauge of short-term market volatility is the Vix 1-day Volatility Index, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next day of trading. The higher the Vix 1-Day moves ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, the greater the likelihood of a rally in S&P 500 futures once the event risk passes – especially if the jobs figures are better than the market expects.

Vix 1-Day Volatility Index, showing spikes in volatility around the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, April 2024 - present

Key economic and company events

The coming week’s major economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 28 April

• US: April Dallas Fed manufacturing business index
• Results: Welltower (Q1)

Tuesday 29 April

• Eurozone: April business climate survey, April consumer confidence index
• Germany: May GfK consumer confidence survey
• Japan: March large retailer sales
• Spain: Q1 gross domestic product (GDP)
• US: February housing price index, March JOLTS jobs openings, April consumer confidence index
• Results: Altria (Q1), American Tower (Q1), Associated British Foods (HY), AstraZeneca (Q1), Booking (Q1), BP (Q1), Coca-Cola (Q1), Honeywell (Q1), HSBC (Q1), Mondelez (Q1), PayPal (Q1), Pfizer (Q1), S&P Global (Q1), Sherwin-Williams (Q1), Spotify (Q1), Starbucks (Q2), United Parcel Service (Q1), Visa (Q2), Waste Management (Q1)

Wednesday 30 April

• Australia: Q1 consumer price index (CPI)
• China: April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
• Eurozone: Q1 flash GDP
• France: Q1 flash GDP, April flash CPI
• Germany: Q1 flash GDP, March retail sales, March unemployment rate, April flash CPI
• Italy: Q1 flash GDP
• US: March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, Q1 flash GDP
• Results: Automatic Data Processing (Q3), Caterpillar (Q1), GSK (Q1), KLA (Q3), Meta Platforms (Q1), Microsoft (Q3), Qualcomm (Q2)

Thursday 1 May

• Australia: March imports, exports and trade balance
• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, March unemployment rate
• US: Weekly initial jobless claims to 25 April, April ISM manufacturing PMI
• Results: Airbnb (Q1), Amazon (Q1), Amgen (Q1), Apple (Q2), Arthur J. Gallagher (Q1), CVS Health (Q1), Eli Lilly (Q1), Endeavour Mining (Q1), Intercontinental Exchange (Q1), KKR & Co. (Q1), Linde (Q1), Mastercard (Q1), McDonald’s (Q1), MicroStrategy (Q1), Southern Company (Q1), Stryker (Q1)

Friday 2 May

• Australia: March retail sales
• Eurozone: April flash harmonised CPI, April HCOB manufacturing PMI
• US: April jobs report, including non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings
• Results: Apollo Global Management (Q1), Chevron (Q1), Cigna (Q1), Eaton (Q1), Exxon Mobil (Q1), Shell (Q1), Standard Chartered (Q1)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.