The Week Ahead: UK labour report, GDP, Cisco earnings

With no indication when the US government shut down will end, this week’s US economic data will be limited to the private sector NFIB small business report. This means attention will turn elsewhere, particularly to the UK, with the autumn Budget due in two weeks’ time. It will be important to monitor developments in the UK labour market (Tuesday) and economic growth, with Thursday’s preliminary Q3 GDP reading one to watch. 

 US earnings reports are also slowing to a trickle, with companies such as Cisco Systems and Walt Disney releasing results, while newer AI players like CoreWeave are also likely to attract investors’ attention. 

UK October labour report 

Tuesday 11 November

Unemployment data in the UK accelerated in June and July, but slowed sharply in August. As a result, the employment picture in September becomes particularly important, as the Bank of England now appears poised to cut rates at its next meeting in December, following the close call in November. Weaker data could seal the case for a rate cut, which would be a negative sign for the British pound, and could see it retrace all the way back to $1.271.

Recently, the pound fell below support at $1.31 and has since been consolidating sideways, which is to be expected given its oversold condition with the relative strength index (RSI) dropping below 30, and the currency trading beneath its lower Bollinger Band. However, weaker data may lead to further declines and additional weakness against the dollar. Conversely, stronger data could allow the pound to rebound and retest resistance around $1.3160, although a breakout above resistance appears unlikely. 

GBP/USD chart, February-6 November 2025

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Cisco Systems Q1 results

Wednesday 12 November

The NASDAQ-listed networking company is expected to report fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings growth of 7.9% year-on-year to $0.98 per share. Revenue is forecast to increase by 6.7% to $14.8bn, while gross margins are expected to decline to 68.1%, down from 69.3% a year earlier. For the second quarter, analysts expect the company to guide to earnings growth of 5.1% to $0.99 per share, with revenue rising 4.5% to $14.6bn. Gross margins, however, are projected to decline to 68.1% from 68.7% a year ago. 

The stock is expected to move about 5% following its earnings release. Implied volatility on Cisco is not particularly elevated, currently around 50%, suggesting limited scope for implied volatility to decline following the company’s results. The key gamma level in the stock is around $75, which may act as strong resistance, especially given the stock's positive gamma territory, which implies that market makers could sell shares as the price rises. 

Technically, there also appears to be strong support around $67, which could serve as a key level for the shares to hold. However, given the current positive momentum, unless there is a significant downside surprise with earnings, it seems more likely that Cisco may attempt to advance towards $75 and possibly even test all-time highs near $76 per share, or potentially as high as $81.

Cisco Systems share price, 1997-2025

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK Q3 GDP 

Thursday, 13 November

UK GDP growth has remained stagnant over recent months, struggling to move much beyond a gain of 1% year-on-year, while quarter-on-quarter growth has been steadily declining, only recently showing a rebound in August. Despite this, the sluggish growth has not had a major impact on equity prices. Any sign of economic growth could help lift the FTSE 100 further and ease concerns about the UK’s budgetary position, potentially reducing the need for tax increases if productivity improves.

The FTSE 100 has already benefited from rising global commodity prices, which have supported the index’s recent rally. If economic growth improves, it could provide additional momentum, helping to drive the FTSE higher. At present, the index has been consolidating around 9,770 and appears well positioned to continue rising – possibly even moving towards 9,900 in the near term – if the outlook for growth brightens and worries over tax hikes subside. 

UK 100 chart, July-6 November 2025

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 10 November

• Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence (Nov) 

• Japan: Current account (Sep)

• Results: Coreweave (Q3), Kainos Group (HY)

Tuesday 11 November

• UK: BRC retail sales (Oct), average earnings, claimant count, unemployment rate (Oct)

• Eurozone: ZEW economic sentiment survey (Nov) 

• US: NFIB business optimism index (Oct)

• Results: 3i Infrastructure (HY), DCC (HY), Oxford Instruments (HY), Vodafone (HY)

Wednesday 12 November

• Germany: Consumer price index (Oct)

• Results: Cisco Systems (Q1), Experian (HY), SSE (HY)

Thursday 13 November

• Australia: Unemployment rate (Oct)

• Eurozone: Industrial production (Sep) 

• UK: Gross domestic product (Q3, preliminary), industrial production (Sep), manufacturing production (Sep)

• Results: 3i Group (HY), Applied Materials (Q4), B&M European Value Retail (HY), Brookfield Corp (Q3), Burberry Group (HY), Premier Foods (HY), Qinetiq Group (HY), United Utilities (HY), Walt Disney (Q4), Wizz Air (HY)

Friday 14 November

• China: Industrial production (Oct), retail sales (Oct)

• Eurozone: Gross domestic product (Q3, preliminary)

• Results: Land Securities (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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