The Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings; Japan, UK inflation

US president Donald Trump signed a funding bill on Wednesday 12 November to end the 43-day government shutdown – the longest in the country’s history. As federal offices reopen, the flow of US economic data – covering inflation, jobs and more – should resume in the coming days. The precise timing of data releases remains unknown, so it’ll be important to pay attention to any announcements on release dates, and to be in a position to react when the numbers come in. While we may get the September jobs report by the end of next week, there have also been warnings that the October and November reports may never be released as data was not collected in full during the shutdown. It’s therefore possible that we could be left with a two-month gap in official economic figures, potentially complicating traders’ models. 

Amid this uncertainty, one scheduled announcement that is sure to capture the market’s attention in the coming week is Nvidia’s third-quarter results, which we preview below. Also coming up are the latest consumer price index (CPI) readings from the UK and Japan. 

Nvidia Q3 earnings

Wednesday 19 November

Nvidia will have the stage to itself when it reveals its results after the close of trading on Wednesday. Analysts expect the chipmaker to report that Q3 earnings rose 53.8% to $1.25 a share as revenue increased an estimated 56.3% to $54.8bn. Gross profit margin is forecast to have tightened to 73.5%, compared to 75% in the year-ago quarter.

Looking ahead to the fiscal fourth quarter, analysts expect revenue to grow 56.1% to $61.4bn, delivering earnings growth of 60% to $1.42 a share. They see gross margin expanding to 74.5% from 73.5% a year ago.

The Nasdaq-listed tech giant has a history of beating Wall Street expectations. Investors have become accustomed to Nvidia beating its own revenue guidance by $2bn to $3bn and then raising guidance for the next quarter by a further $2bn to $3bn above analysts’ forecasts. Because of this pattern, it may take significantly better-than-expected numbers to boost the Nvidia share price, which closed at $186.86 on Thursday, up 35% year-to-date. 

It should come as no surprise that implied volatility for Nvidia stock is quite high, currently around 70%. These implied volatility levels are likely to increase further ahead of the results. From an options perspective, the stock is – again unsurprisingly – positioned bullishly. Given this setup, the shares could come under pressure unless the results exceed estimates by even more than the typical $2bn-$3bn beat.

Technical analysis indicates that the Nvidia share price has been holding above a support level around $183, which also aligns with an important options-related support zone at $185. But if the stock moves lower after the results, there is a chance it could fall to around $165 (the area highlighted by the blue bar on the below chart), as that is the next major technical support level. Momentum, as indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) is weakening and trending lower – it’s at about 46 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the lower Bollinger Band is currently around $175. Taken together, these indicators suggest that there may be ample room for the shares to fall following the results to between $165 and $175.

Nvidia share price, June 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Japan October CPI

Thursday 20 November 

Japan’s CPI report comes at a crucial moment for the Japanese yen, which has been weakening again as the Bank of Japan holds off on raising interest rates. The upcoming inflation figures also follow a producer price index (PPI) reading on 12 November that came in hotter than expected, suggesting that higher prices for manufacturers could soon be passed on to consumers. 

If the CPI print for October comes in higher than September’s 2.9% (current market expectations are for a rise to 3.1%), the report is likely to put additional pressure on the BoJ to act, or else risk further yen weakness that could exacerbate Japan’s inflation problems.

The yen appears to be at a crucial turning point as it tests resistance near ¥154.5 per dollar. Technical analysis suggests that the yen may be set to weaken further, potentially sending USD/JPY towards ¥156.14, or even ¥158.30 if the CPI reading comes in hotter than expected and the BoJ offers no signal that it plans to raise interest rates any time soon.

USD/JPY, January 2025 - present 

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK October CPI

Wednesday 19 November

The probability the market is placing on a quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting on 18 December has increased to roughly 80% following a weaker-than-expected UK labour market report, which showed the unemployment rate rising to 5%. So, unless the CPI print for October comes in significantly higher than the expected 3.7% (following three consecutive months at 3.8%), it seems likely that the BoE will lower its benchmark interest rate to 3.75% next month in a bid to stimulate the economy. 

Retail sales data, out on Friday 21 November, will also help shape the Bank’s monetary policy decision, though probably to a lesser extent than the inflation numbers. 

A rate cut could put further pressure on the pound, with GBP/USD already struggling to break back above resistance at $1.3170. If the pair manages to clear that level, it could rise towards $1.33. However, if an in-line or cooler-than-expected CPI reading locks in market expectations of a December rate cut, there is potential for the pound to slip from current levels towards $1.27, a rate not seen since early April.

GBP/USD, February 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic and company announcements :

Monday 17 November

• Japan: Q3 gross domestic product (GDP)

Tuesday 18 November

• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes

Wednesday 19 November

• Australia: Labour Price Index

• Japan: October imports, exports and trade balance

• New Zealand: Producer Price Index

• Results: Lowe's, Target (US Pre-market)

Thursday 20 November

• US: Housing Starts

• Results: Nvidia (US Post-market)

Friday 21 November

• New Zealand: October imports, exports and trade balance

• Japan: Consumer Price Impact

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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