The Week Ahead: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, UK GDP

The flow of US economic data remains blocked amid the ongoing federal government shutdown. Consequently, the timely arrival of a fresh earnings season may move markets even more than usual. US banks kick things off, with JPMorgan – the largest US bank by assets under management and market capitalisation – and Goldman Sachs among the major financial institutions set to report third-quarter results on Tuesday. In Britain, the release of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Thursday will put economic growth in the spotlight ahead of the Budget on 26 November.

JPMorgan Chase Q3 earnings

Tuesday 14 October 

Analysts expect JPMorgan to report that Q3 earnings grew 10.5% year-on-year to $4.83 a share, as revenue increased an estimated 4.8% to $45.39bn. Net interest income – a measure of profitability as it represents the difference between the interest earned on assets (eg, loans) and the interest paid on liabilities (eg, customer savings) – is projected to be up 3.1% at $24.1bn. Analysts are also forecasting loan loss provisions of $3.1bn.

Looking ahead to Q4, the NYSE-listed megabank is expected to guide net interest income of $24.7bn, implying total net interest income of around $95.4bn for 2025 and $98.4bn for 2026. That’s based on analyst estimates of Q4 revenue growth of 2.9% to $45bn, with earnings expected to decline less than 1% to $4.78 a share. The JPMorgan Chase share price – up 27% year-to-date at $305.53, as of Thursday’s close – is anticipated to move about 4% following the Q3 results, based on options market positioning.

There is significant negative options gamma positioning around the $300 strike price, which could provide strong support for the stock, as long as the company’s results and guidance do not disappoint investors. This support area also aligns with the late-July highs, as shown on the technical chart below. However, if the stock were to fall below $300, it could open a path towards the next major level of support near $280.

JPMorgan Chase share price, January 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings

Tuesday 14 October 
Goldman Sachs, which holds the largest weighting in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, is expected to report that Q3 earnings soared 30.1% year-on-year to $10.99 a share, with revenue increasing 11% to $14.1bn, according to analysts. Trading income is forecast to be up 8.0% at $3.2bn. 

For the fourth quarter, earnings are projected to fall 4.2% to $11.45 a share, while revenue is forecast to decline less than 1% to $13.8bn. The investment bank’s shares – which have gained 36% this year to close on Thursday just at a few cents shy of $780 – are expected to move by around 4.5% following the Q3 earnings announcement. Given the stock’s significant weighting in the Dow, the results could have an outsized impact on the index.

Goldman’s options positioning appears bullish, with a large build-up of call gamma at $800, which is likely to act as resistance should the stock advance after the results are released. However, the shares have formed a bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI), which is making lower highs while the share price itself makes higher highs within a rising megaphone pattern. Facing strong resistance around $800, the stock could undergo a post-earnings dip and may test the lower end of the megaphone pattern near $740.

Goldman Sachs share price, March 2023 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK August GDP

Thursday 16 October 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will outline the government's tax and spending plans on Wednesday 26 November. Between now and then, investors will be paying close attention to economic readings such as GDP and productivity to assess the likely impact of the government’s plans, and whether they may leave any fiscal gaps. 

After GDP growth flatlined in July, economists are expecting a meagre 0.1% month-on-month uptick for August. A weaker-than-expected GDP reading could cause anxiety among investors, leading to a rise in long-end gilt yields and a weaker pound. We’ve already seen these symptoms emerge. In September, a wider-than-expected budget deficit triggered a spike in rates and a sharp weakening of the pound.

This has put GBP/USD under pressure. The pair has broken support at $1.33, and on Friday morning was trading below $1.3290. Further weakness could send the pair towards $1.3170. Whether the pound falls through that level may depend on how quickly the UK economy is growing – if it’s growing at all. A break of support at $1.3170 risks extending the pound’s weak run and sending GBP/USD below $1.30.

GBP/USD, February 2025 - present 

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and Uk company reports include:

Monday 13 October

• China: September exports, imports and trade balance
• Results: Fastenal (Q3)

Tuesday 14 October

• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes 
• Eurozone: October economic sentiment index 
• Germany: September consumer price index (CPI)
• UK: September jobs data (claimant count change, unemployment rate, employment change, average earnings)
• Results: Bellway (FY), BlackRock (Q3), Citigroup (Q3), Domino's Pizza (Q3), Goldman Sachs (Q3), Johnson & Johnson (Q3), JPMorgan Chase (Q3), Wells Fargo (Q3), YouGov (FY)

Wednesday 15 October

• China: September CPI
• Eurozone: August industrial production
• France: September CPI 
• Spain: September CPI
• Results: Abbott Laboratories (Q3), Bank of America (Q3), Morgan Stanley (Q3), Progressive (Q3), Prologis (Q3)

Thursday 16 October

• Australia: September jobs data (unemployment rate employment change, etc)
• Italy: September CPI
• UK: August gross domestic product (GDP) 
• Results: Charles Schwab (Q3), Interactive Brokers (Q3), Marsh McLennan (Q3), United Airlines (Q3), Whitbread (HY)

Friday 17 October

• Eurozone: September harmonised CPI
• Results: American Express (Q3)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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