Fallen giants: Can these 3 stocks bounce back in 2025?

No company is too big to falter, and when they do, the market takes notice. Companies can crater for any number of reasons: management missteps, disruption, regulatory pressure, or macro forces turning against them.

Markets run on numbers, but they also run on stories. When sentiment turns, even the strongest businesses can see their share prices tumble. Sometimes that panic is short-lived, as with Meta [META:US], which fell 76% from $378 to $91 between 2021 and 2022. Its stock is up close to 800% from that low at the time of writing.

Other times, the change in narrative is more permanent. Major winners of 2020, such as Zoom [ZM:US] and Peloton [PTON:US], soared on stimulus-fuelled optimism before losing more than 80% of their value, with both yet to recover. The challenge for investors is knowing whether a business is caught in a passing storm or undergoing a fundamental shift, and in the moment this is rarely clear.

Three prominent companies with market caps above $100 billion have seen sharp share price declines in 2025. This article examines the key drivers behind these moves, assesses the underlying fundamentals, and weighs both sides of the debate on whether these stocks are poised for recovery or vulnerable to further weakness.

Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk [NOVO/B:DK] has lost about 65% of its value over the past year as slowing growth, fierce competition, and pricing pressure hit its flagship obesity and diabetes drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic. The decline comes after a three-year rally ending in mid-2024, during which Novo Nordisk’s market cap surged 300% to a level exceeding the value of Denmark’s annual GDP. That lofty valuation left the stock highly exposed once investor optimism began to fade.

The company has suffered a series of blows, from disappointing trial results to the ousting of its CEO. A recent breaking point came in July, when management cut full-year 2025 sales growth guidance to 8% to 14% from 13% to 21% and lowered profit growth targets to 10% to 16% from 16% to 24%. Shares plunged as much as 26% in a single day on the news.

Competitive pressure is also intensifying. US rival Eli Lilly looks set to overtake Novo in prescriptions with Mounjaro and Zepbound, drugs viewed as more effective and with fewer side effects. Compounded copycat versions of semaglutide, which is the active ingredient in medications like Ozempic and Wegovy, are also eroding US cash-pay sales despite an FDA ban earlier this year.

While first-half 2025 sales rose 18% and operating profit increased 29%, momentum is slowing. Pipeline setbacks, particularly the underwhelming CagriSema trial, raise doubts about Novo’s ability to catch Lilly before 2027. Bulls argue the sell-off is overdone, noting that the stock now trades on a P/E of around 14, similar to levels last seen in 2017 and 2018. They also point to new leadership, expanded US manufacturing, and the possibility of broader insurance coverage as potential catalysts. Bears counter that competitive losses, pricing erosion, and strategic missteps could keep growth muted for years.

An important part of the story from here is whether Novo can reignite its GLP-1 franchise and defend market share against a faster-moving rival. Until then, volatility is likely to remain high.

^{Source: TradingView, data as of 18 August 2025} 

UnitedHealth Group

UnitedHealth Group [UNH:US] is another stock that has suffered a brutal collapse, falling about 47% over the past year. This is remarkable for a company that built its reputation as one of healthcare’s most dependable defensive plays on the back of years of steady growth since 2008.

The decline has been driven by a string of operational and strategic shocks. In April 2025, Q1 results showed strong revenue growth but an earnings miss as surging Medicare Advantage and post-acute care costs drove the medical cost ratio sharply higher. In May, longtime CEO Andrew Witty resigned abruptly amid mounting pressures and the suspension of full-year guidance. July brought another blow as Q2 EPS (earnings per share) came in far below forecasts, and management slashed 2025 earnings expectations to $16 per share from prior guidance of more than $26 just months earlier. Shares fell heavily on each of these announcements.

Other headwinds have compounded the damage. A damaging cyberattack on Optum (a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group) disrupted claims processing early in the year, while ongoing DOJ investigations into billing practices have added legal uncertainty.

That said, at these levels some bulls see deep value in a market leader with strong cash generation, an attractive dividend yield of 3.38%, and guidance for 2025 revenues of $445.5 billion to $448 billion. The company remains profitable and is trading at a P/E of around 11, its lowest level since 2013. Adding to the optimism, on 14 August 2025 Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new stake in the troubled insurer, according to a regulatory filing. Buffett is well known for investing in companies facing short-term challenges when he believes they offer strong long-term prospects at an attractive valuation.

In the other camp, bears warn that rising medical costs, regulatory risk, and reputational damage could keep margins under pressure and delay recovery until well beyond 2026. UnitedHealth’s path back will require cost control, legal clarity, and renewed investor confidence in a business now exposed to cost pressures and regulatory headwinds that were barely on the radar a few years ago.

^{Source: TradingView, data as of 18 August 2025} 

Adobe

Adobe [ADBE:US] shares have fallen about 36% over the past year, sliding from a 2024 high of $643 to a recent low of $333 in August, a 46% peak-to-trough decline. This underperformance stands out in a tech sector rally and marks a sharp reversal for one of software’s most profitable franchises.

The recent wave of selling momentum began in December 2024, when Adobe delivered record Q4 and full-year results but issued cautious 2025 revenue guidance of $23.3 billion to $23.5 billion, below market expectations. Shares fell 13% to 14% in their steepest one-day drop since 2022. The pattern repeated in March and June 2025: earnings beats followed by declines as management’s subdued AI monetisation outlook and warnings on competitive headwinds overshadowed results.

Competitive pressure is mounting from Canva, OpenAI, and Google, which are rapidly integrating generative AI into creative and marketing tools. While Adobe’s Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, and GenStudio are gaining traction, expected 2025 AI revenue of $250 million is just 1% of total sales. Subscriber growth remains solid, but an emphasis on boosting engagement rather than pushing through price rises has slightly tempered growth expectations for the Digital Media segment, which covers its subscription-based creative and document software services. Macro pressures, high interest rates, and currency headwinds have further weighed on sentiment.

Fundamentals remain strong, with forecast revenue of $23.6 billion in 2025, an operating margin target of 46% for 2025, and industry-leading profitability. Valuation-wise, its P/E is near 21, the lowest level since 2012. Bulls see dominant market share, robust cash generation, and buybacks supporting a rebound. Bears argue that without a faster AI payoff or a major catalyst, Adobe could continue to lag as rivals chip away at its leadership.

Adobe’s recovery could depend on how well it navigates change in the AI landscape, particularly how effectively it can monetise AI and maintain its creative software dominance while facing a tougher competitive landscape.

^{Source: TradingView, data as of 18 August 2025} 

Curious to find out whether these giants can stage a comeback?

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