The Week Ahead: Micron earnings; Fed, BoE rate decisions; UK labour market data

Published: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 12:10 (UK)

Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 16 March.

Central bank interest rate meetings will dominate the week ahead, particularly as the recent rise in oil prices sparks fears of a spike in inflation. The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting is likely to be the main focus for global markets, but the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled to meet. Meanwhile, US earnings season is drawing to a close, but Micron’s results will still attract attention given their relevance to the AI trade. In the UK, Thursday’s BoE rate decision will be preceded by the latest labour market data, which could be of note for sterling traders as growth in Britain’s economy remains sluggish.

Micron Technology Q2 earnings

Wednesday 18 March
Micron is expected to report that second-quarter earnings and revenue more than doubled year-on-year to $8.73 a share and $19.1bn, respectively, based on analysts’ estimates. The Nasdaq-listed memory chip maker’s gross margin is projected to expand to 67.3%, up from 56.9% in the previous quarter. Guidance will also be closely watched. Analysts currently expect third-quarter revenue to rise to $22.1bn, with gross margin set to increase to 69.1%.

The options market implies that shares of Micron – up 28.5% this year at $405.35, as at Thursday’s close – could move 10% in either direction following the Q2 results.

Micron appears to be positioned bullishly ahead of the results, with implied volatility near 100% and likely to increase further for options expiring on Friday 20 March. Once the company’s results are released on Wednesday, call premiums could unwind, and hedging flows may turn negative, potentially weighing on the shares.

In terms of the key levels to watch, the options market points to resistance near $430 and support around $390. Technical analysis suggests that the trading range may be somewhat wider, with resistance near $445 and support around $360. Since the end of January, the stock has been trending lower and appears to be forming a descending triangle, typically a bearish chart pattern that can signal the continuation of a downtrend. Momentum indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), have also been weakening. A break below $360 might open the way to a deeper decline towards $290 over the medium to long term.

Micron Technology share price, October 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Central bank interest rate decisions

Wednesday 18 March (US Federal Reserve)
Thursday 19 March (Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ECB)
Although economists aren’t expecting central banks to make significant monetary policy changes this month, traders and investors will be watching closely for how the Fed and other central banks assess the inflation outlook following the surge in oil prices. The market’s assumptions on rates have already shifted, with investors reducing expectations for rate cuts and, in some cases, beginning to consider the possibility of rate hikes. According to a report in Bloomberg on Thursday, traders are no longer pricing in that the Fed will lower interest rates this year. Against this backdrop, guidance from policymakers could play an important role in shaping expectations for the months ahead.

Risk assets such as stocks may be particularly sensitive to a more “hawkish” (ie, in favour of higher rates to curb inflation) tone from policymakers. The S&P 500, down 2.7% year-to-date, has already fallen below a key support area near 6,700. If central banks signal that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer, markets may need to adjust their expectations further. In that scenario, the S&P 500 could face additional downside pressure, potentially moving back towards the November lows near 6,550 in the near term.

S&P 500, August 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

UK labour market data

Thursday 19 March
The UK labour market has gradually softened in recent months, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in December. A weaker job market, combined with persistent inflation, has contributed to sluggish economic growth – official data out on Friday showed that UK GDP unexpectedly failed to grow in January. With oil prices rising and markets now expecting fewer interest rate cuts globally, the pound could face additional pressure if labour market conditions continue to deteriorate.

GBP/USD has trended lower since late-January and on Friday morning was holding near an important support level around $1.325 per pound. A sustained move below this level could open the way towards $1.32 and potentially lower. Momentum indicators also remain weak, with the RSI near 37. If, however, the jobs figures come in stronger than expected and suggest some improvement in economic conditions, the pound could recover towards $1.355. For now, though, the broader trend in cable may retain a bias to the downside.

GBP/USD, October 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 16 March
• Canada: February consumer price index (CPI)
• China: February industrial production, February retail sales
• US: February industrial production
• Results: Dollar Tree (Q4), Semtech (Q4), Standard Life (FY)

Tuesday 17 March
• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
• Japan: February imports, exports and merchandise trade balance
• US: February retail sales
• Results: Close Brothers (HY), DocuSign (Q4), Lululemon (Q4), Oklo (Q4), Prudential (FY), Trustpilot (FY), Wickes (FY)

Wednesday 18 March
• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• Eurozone: February harmonised CPI
• New Zealand: Q4 gross domestic product (GDP)
• US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, February producer price index (PPI)
• Results: Five Below (Q4), General Mills (Q3), Jabil (Q2), Macy's (Q4), Micron Technology (Q2), SailPoint (Q4), Softcat (HY), Williams-Sonoma (Q4)

Thursday 19 March
• Australia: February employment change and unemployment rate
• Eurozone: European Central Bank interest rate decision
• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
• New Zealand: February imports, exports and trade balance
• Switzerland: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
• UK: Bank of England interest rate decision, January average earnings, January unemployment rate, January employment change, February claimant count change
• US: Weekly initial jobless claims, March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
• Results: Accenture (Q2), Atalaya Mining (FY), Darden Restaurants (Q3), DFS Furniture (HY), Energean (FY), FedEx (Q3)

Friday 20 March
• Canada: January retail sales
• China: People’s Bank of China interest rate decision
• Germany: February PPI
• Results: Ermenegildo Zegna (Q4), JD Wetherspoon (HY), Smiths (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.