Oil prices look set for another move higher
Oil prices are stabilising after recent volatility and appear to be building momentum for a potential breakout. Technical indicators suggest the broader uptrend may resume, although key resistance and support levels remain in focus.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Recent price action
Oil prices have been consolidating over the past two trading sessions around $100 per barrel. After falling sharply on Monday, 23 March, prices appeared to find a support region between $84 and $86 per barrel and have since moved higher.
During the Monday, 30 March session, oil extended above its previous resistance level from 16 March, around $101 per barrel. It is now attempting to break out and push beyond that level, even amid headlines suggesting a potential deal with Iran to end the war.
Source: TradingView, 30 March 2026
Technical outlook
If oil is simply consolidating, it would appear to be preparing for another move higher towards $116 per barrel. Looking at the RSI, oil is no longer in overbought territory after dropping below 70 and is also trading below the upper Bollinger Band.
In addition, both the 20-day and 10-day exponential moving averages are trending higher again, with the 10-day offering support and the 20-day providing secondary support should the former trendline break.
Downside risks and key levels
If oil fails to maintain upward momentum and falls back below $101, the exponential moving averages could be the first areas to provide support, with the next key level around $84-$86 per barrel. A break below that range would be very bearish and would likely signal a move back below $80.
For now, however, oil appears to be attempting to re-establish an uptrend and shrug off potentially market-moving headlines.
Enduring consequences of the Middle East conflict
The Middle East conflict is evolving into a lasting force shaping global markets rather than a temporary disruption. Its impact on energy prices, inflation and policy expectations is driving sustained changes in investor behaviour and risk dynamics.
The Week Ahead: US ISM, jobs report, Nike earnings
Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 30 March.
Oil finds support as volatility falls, but risks remain high
Oil prices are showing signs of stabilisation as geopolitical tensions ease slightly, with volatility declining from recent peaks. However, the market remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East, leaving downside risks firmly in place.