The Week Ahead: US ISM, jobs report, Nike earnings

Published: Friday, 27 March 2026 at 1.30pm (UK)

It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with UK and US markets closed on Friday for the start of the Easter holiday weekend. Still, there will be plenty of economic data in the US for traders and investors to watch, including ISM manufacturing and services, plus ADP and non-farm payrolls employment reports. In a quieter week at home, we’ll still get a reading on the UK economy with a final GDP figure for Q4, and fresh manufacturing numbers. Together, these should offer a gauge on how much damage higher oil prices have caused to the economy so far. Meanwhile, sportswear giant Nike wraps up the current earnings season, as we await the start of the next one in early April.

Nike Q3 earnings

Tuesday 31 March
The athletic apparel maker is expected to report third-quarter earnings of $0.28 per share, down 48% year-on-year, while revenue is expected to decline by less than 1% to $11.2bn. Gross margins are expected to contract to 39.8%, from 40.6% in Q2. Analysts forecast Q4 earnings will grow 53.4% to $0.21. Revenue is projected to increase by 2% to $11.3bn, while gross margins are expected to rise by less than 1% to 40.6%. The stock is expected to see a post-earnings move of about 7.7%.

Implied volatility for Nike options expiring on 2 April is relatively elevated, at around 80%. Option positioning in Nike appears bearish, with a key level of support currently around $50, just slightly below the stock’s current price. However, if the company reports solid results, the combination of bearish positioning and strong support at $50 could set the stage for a post-earnings rally. As implied volatility resets, and provided the results are not unexpectedly weak, the decay in ‘put’ premiums could help lift the shares.

From a technical perspective, the picture broadly aligns with the options market. Nike has been trading at its lowest level since October 2017, representing significant support around $50. A break below $50 would be a clear negative signal, and could see the stock moving down towards $45. However, if support holds, the shares could move back towards $62.5 and potentially rally further to around $75.5, over a longer period. Both the technical setup and options positioning suggest that the next major level of resistance does not appear until approximately $75.5.

Nike share price, July 2017 - present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

US ISM manufacturing

Wednesday 1 April
Markets will be paying close attention to the manufacturing prices paid index, given the surge in oil prices in March. The index had already risen in February to 70.5 – its highest level since the summer of 2022 – before oil prices began to climb.

The increase in oil prices will heighten focus on whether inflationary pressures are re-emerging. That could prove to be a major pressure point for equities, which are already struggling as oil prices rise. At present, the S&P 500 is sitting in a key support zone between 6,475 and 6,500. A break below that range could see the index fall towards 6,350, representing a meaningful decline from current levels – roughly another 2% lower – and potentially leaving the index down almost 10% from its all-time highs just two months ago.

S&P 500, June 2025 - present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

US jobs report

Friday 3 April
Non-farm payrolls are expected to show a gain of 48,000 jobs in March, a significant improvement from February, when employment declined by 92,000. Private payrolls are also expected to rise to 51,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.5% from 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged at 0.4% month-on-month.

If the report does not come in weaker than expected, as it did in February, it’s likely to support a stronger US dollar. At present, the Japanese yen appears to be the currency struggling the most against the dollar, with USD/JPY trading just below key resistance around ¥160. This level remains a critical threshold, and a break above it could see USD/JPY advance towards the ¥162 to ¥162.5 levels last seen in July 2024. For now, the market continues to watch closely to see whether that breakout materialises.

USD/JPY, May 2024 - present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 30 March
• Eurozone: Consumer confidence index (March)
• Germany: Consumer price index (CPI) (March)
• UK: Mortgage approvals (February)
• Results: Fermi (Q4)

Tuesday 31 March
• China: Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) (March)
• Eurozone: CPI (March)
• UK: Gross domestic product (Q4, final)
• Results: Nike (Q3)

Wednesday 1 April
• China: Manufacturing PMI (March)
• UK: Manufacturing PMI (March)
• US: ADP employment change (March), retail sales (February), ISM manufacturing PMI (March)
• Results: ConAgra Brands (Q3)

Thursday 2 April
• Australia: Trade balance (March)
• China: CPI (March)
• Results: Acuity (Q2)

Friday 3 April
• China: Services PMI (March)
• US: Average hourly earnings (March), non-farm payrolls (March), ISM services PMI (March), unemployment rate (March)
• Results: N/A

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.