Silver prices may continue to fall amid a strong dollar
Silver has extended its June decline as a stronger US dollar pressures precious metals, pushing the price below $59.50 and leaving momentum near oversold territory. A short-term rebound towards the 20-day moving average remains possible, but a break of support could open the way towards $49.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Silver is falling as the dollar strengthens
Silver prices have continued to decline throughout June. The move appears to be accelerating to the downside as the dollar continues to strengthen. The dollar's recent surge has been driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance at its June policy meeting, reflected in the dot plots' hawkish tilt and the absence of forward guidance, as well as the hawkish tone at the press conference delivered by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
That currency backdrop matters because a stronger dollar can make precious metals harder to sustain, especially when markets are also reassessing the path of US interest rates. For silver, the immediate result has been a renewed push lower rather than a stabilisation after the first half of the month's decline.
Oversold signals are returning
Silver has continued to weaken through the second half of June and is now trading below $59.50. That puts the market back near oversold conditions, similar to mid-June, when price fell below the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI dropped under 30.
The current setup does not guarantee that selling pressure is exhausted, but it does suggest the decline has become stretched in the near term. Traders will be watching whether sellers can keep control below $59.50 or whether the oversold reading encourages a short pause in the move.
Silver (Jul 2026), January 2026 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael J Kramer.
A rebound is possible, but the bias remains lower
The oversold setup could allow silver to consolidate sideways or rebound towards the 20-day moving average, similar to the move seen between 11 June and 17 June. That would fit with a short-term relief phase after a sharp move lower.
The broader trend still looks vulnerable, however. The source argues that silver's downward bias may not yet be complete, particularly if the US dollar continues to strengthen through the second half of 2026. In that scenario, any rebound could remain corrective unless price can reclaim broken support and rebuild momentum.
The $59.50 support level is the line to watch
The most important level now is $59.50. A sustained break below that support would deepen the technical damage and could open the way for another leg lower, rather than simply extending a short-term oversold move.
A break of support at $59.50 could mean that silver falls even further, perhaps all the way back to around $49.
US dollar rally tests whether Fed-hike bets have gone too far
The US dollar has extended its rally to a fresh one-year high as markets continue to price the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes under Kevin Warsh. The move could still prove vulnerable if lower oil prices and US-Iran diplomacy cool inflation pressure enough to challenge the market's hawkish Fed narrative.
Silver prices reach a critical technical turning point
Silver is testing a key resistance area around its 50-day moving average and the upper boundary of a descending channel, with momentum still fragile. A sustained break above $75.70-$77.40 could improve the recovery case, but failure there would keep the downside focus on support near $70.30.
