DAX hovers near 25,000 as US-Iran talks support sentiment
The DAX opened the week above 25,000 points before settling back around the key level as investors weighed cautious optimism over US-Iran talks. Lower oil prices, unchanged Chinese lending rates and upcoming positioning and confidence data keep the focus on inflation, growth and demand.
Chief Market Analyst
The DAX is testing a key threshold
The DAX opened the new trading week above 25,000 points, putting the psychologically important level back in focus after Friday's pullback. The move leaves the index testing whether improved risk appetite can translate into a more durable break higher, or whether the area again acts as resistance.
Asian markets offered a broadly supportive lead, with technology and semiconductor shares still benefiting from enthusiasm around AI-related demand. The main driver of sentiment, however, remains the Middle East, where investors are watching US-Iran negotiations for signs that the risk premium in energy and equity markets can continue to ease.
Oil and China offer a steadier backdrop
Oil remains the clearest market barometer of that risk. Brent crude has moved back below the $80 mark, suggesting investors are currently attaching a lower probability to a severe disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. That has helped calm immediate inflation concerns, although the market remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in headlines.
China also avoided adding new pressure at the start of the week. The People's Bank of China left the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, in line with expectations, keeping the policy backdrop stable for regional markets.
Consumer demand remains the next test
Investor attention is now turning to the wider economic consequences of the geopolitical situation. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, delayed by Friday's Juneteenth holiday in the US and due at 3.30pm ET today, could attract attention as traders reassess positioning across major markets. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are also due today and may provide a useful signal on whether the region's recovery is gaining traction.
Recent disappointments from the automotive sector have kept concerns about consumer demand alive. Investors will be watching whether signs of spending restraint are spreading to other industries, and whether European consumption can remain resilient enough to support sentiment in the weeks ahead.
DAX holds near 25,000 as Middle East peace hopes turn fragile
The DAX is still hovering around the 25,000-point area after Thursday's close above that level, but investors are treating the US-Iran agreement as fragile rather than resolved. Oil is off its recent highs but has edged around the $80 area again, while Friday's European derivatives expiry could keep Frankfurt trading choppy despite the US Juneteenth holiday.
Brent oil enters oversold territory following technical breakdown
Brent crude has broken below the $93-$94 support zone and dropped towards $80 as Middle East escalation fears ease. Oversold signals could allow a short-term rebound, but former support near $94 may now become resistance and the double-top pattern still points to further downside risk.
DAX struggles with 25,000 as the Bank of Japan raises rates
The DAX remains focused on the 25,000 mark after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% and kept the door open to further tightening. Weak China retail sales are adding to concerns over global demand, which matters for German exporters even as industrial production offered a slight upside surprise.