DAX holds near 25,000 as Middle East peace hopes turn fragile

The DAX is still testing the 25,000-point area

The DAX has moved back above the psychologically important 25,000-point mark, but the move still looks more like a test than a decisive breakout. After closing at 25,026.80 on Thursday, delayed Friday quotes showed the index trading a little above 25,100, leaving it close to the resistance area that has capped several recent attempts to extend the rally.

That makes the near-term technical picture fairly simple. A sustained break above 25,000 could open the way for another attempt at the record area near 25,500. Another rejection, however, could encourage profit-taking before the quieter summer trading period.

The peace trade is becoming more conditional

The initial relief around a preliminary US-Iran agreement has not disappeared, but it has become more conditional. Recent reports still point to a 60-day negotiation window, yet the tone around follow-up talks has become less clean-cut, with Iranian officials approving the framework while stressing reservations and the US side facing fresh uncertainty over the next diplomatic steps.

That leaves markets in a familiar middle ground. Investors are not pricing an immediate return to a full regional crisis, but they are also less willing to treat the agreement as a finished peace settlement. Brent crude has eased sharply from its earlier crisis highs, but its move back toward the $80 area shows that the geopolitical risk premium has not been fully removed.

Expiry flows may matter more than Wall Street today

Friday's session is also shaped by the quarterly expiry of European derivatives. The simultaneous expiry of index futures, index options and single-stock options can lift turnover and create sharper individual share moves, even when the broader index does not travel far.

The US backdrop should be quieter. NYSE and Nasdaq cash markets are closed for Juneteenth on Friday 19 June 2026, and the holiday has already shifted much of the US expiry focus into Thursday. That means Frankfurt may see a busier morning around European positioning, followed by thinner global liquidity later in the day.

Oil and diplomacy remain the key signals

For the Germany 40, the link between diplomacy and energy prices remains important. Germany's market is still heavily exposed to cyclical, industrial and export-sensitive companies, so a renewed oil shock would quickly feed back into concerns about margins, inflation and demand.

For now, the calmer interpretation is that Iran's latest rhetoric is part of a negotiating process rather than a sign that renewed military escalation is imminent. But the DAX is not far enough above 25,000 to ignore the risk. If oil stabilises and the US-Iran talks remain alive, the index may keep pressing higher. If negotiations deteriorate and Brent crude rises again, the current range-bound pattern could give way to a more pronounced pullback.