USD/CAD bear flag signals further downside amid oil price surge
USD/CAD is under pressure as rising oil prices strengthen the Canadian dollar and reinforce a broader downtrend in the pair. A bear flag breakdown suggests further downside could be possible if key technical levels continue to hold.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Oil price surge boosts Canadian dollar
With WTI crude oil prices surging above $100, one major beneficiary appears to be the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD has strengthened significantly since the oil price surge, making it one of the few currencies to benefit. USD/CAD is now breaking below a support level around 1.355, which is also part of an uptrend forming a bear flag. That lower trend line has now been broken and suggests that USD/CAD could move lower. A 100% extension of the bear flag indicates that USD/CAD might fall to approximately 1.313.
Source: TradingView, 09 March 2026
Downtrend reinforced by key resistance
Additionally, USD/CAD has been trending lower since November 2025, reflecting a strengthening Canadian dollar, and that downtrend appears to remain firmly in place. There is also a very strong level of resistance around 1.374, which dates back to June 2025 when it served as support as part of a triple-bottom formation. The downtrend and this resistance level are reinforcing the Canadian dollar’s strength against the US dollar.
Bollinger Band support could trigger short-term rebound
However, USD/CAD is currently resting on its lower Bollinger Band, which may act as a potential level of support. If USD/CAD were to reverse and climb back towards the downtrend and resistance around 1.37, it could set up a challenge to that resistance zone. A breakout above that level would likely invalidate the bearish case for USD/CAD.
Source: TradingView, 09 March 2026
The Week Ahead: Central bank rate decisions, US PCE, Meta earnings
Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 27 July.
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