Gold faces October’s US inflation test before it can break out

Gold is once again trying to extend the breakout from a downtrend it first cleared on 4 November after the US midterm election results. So far, however, it has been unable to break above $4,150, a level around which prices have consolidated since late September. A break above $4,150 could open the way to around $4,250, a former support level that now acts as resistance.

Improving momentum meets moving-average resistance

The relative strength index (RSI) has also broken above its own downtrend and risen above 50, suggesting that bullish momentum is improving. That could support a further rise in gold prices. However, the 50-day moving average sits near $4,200 and could offer resistance if gold tests it on the way to $4,250.

Gold price and RSI

Source: TradingView, 9 November 2026

US inflation and the dollar hold the key

Still, most of gold’s recent price moves appear to be driven by the US dollar index, which has eased since peaking in mid-October. Following the strong jobs report on 6 November, attention now turns to the inflation figures due on 10 November. A stronger-than-expected reading could lift the dollar, while a softer reading could ease expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rises, weakening the dollar and giving gold a further boost.

Gold is showing signs of a potential move higher, but it still needs to clear resistance at $4,150. A stronger dollar could make that level harder to break.

Gold and the US dollar index

Source: TradingView, 9 November 2026