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Gold breaks support at $4,000 and may be oversold

Gold's break below $4,000 raises the risk of further losses. Oversold signals could trigger a rebound or consolidation before the longer-term downtrend resumes.

Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

02 Nov 2026, 13:35

Gold prices have fallen through support at $4,000, an important level that had held firm since late October 2025. The break below support could be a critical development for gold's future direction, suggesting the precious metal may have further downside ahead.

Oversold signals could prompt a rebound

However, gold may be due for a rebound before another leg lower begins. The price of gold has fallen below the lower end of its Bollinger Band, while the relative strength index (RSI) has dipped below 30. In the past, as noted previously, this combination has typically signalled an oversold condition, which could result in a period of sideways consolidation for gold or a rebound towards its 20-day moving average.

Gold, May 2026 – present

Source: TradingView, 2 November 2026

Resistance could limit any recovery

The 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also acted as resistance for gold since the metal fell below it in late August. Together, the moving average and resistance at $3,950 may prove strong. If that holds, gold may see a smaller rebound and enter a period of sideways consolidation.

Ultimately, the trend in gold has been lower, and it has been a strong downtrend. If gold is unable to consolidate after this sharp decline, it would suggest the move lower could extend further, potentially back towards $3,600.

Gold, August 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 2 November 2026

The Week Ahead: ISM PMI reports, US jobs report, Apple earnings

Welcome to Michael Kramer's pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 2 November.

Silver breaks July lows as US dollar breaks out

Silver has broken July support near $54.70 as the dollar gains momentum. With RSI still above oversold territory, the metal could face further downside towards $47–$49.50.