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Gold faces a big test after hot PCE and ahead of Jackson Hole

Gold’s rally has stalled near resistance, with hotter PCE data and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech likely to test whether momentum can continue.

Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

26 Aug 2026, 14:30

Gold prices have surged recently but have now stalled at resistance after reaching overbought levels. A hotter-than-expected July PCE report could act as a catalyst against gold, particularly ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday 28 August 2026. This could prove a critical test following gold’s recent rally, helping determine whether it marks the start of the next leg higher or merely a retracement of last year’s surge.

Gold has recovered around 50% of the decline that began in February and ended in mid-summer. This, together with a technical resistance level established in February, is preventing gold prices from rising above $4,700. In addition, gold briefly touched its upper Bollinger Band recently, while its relative strength index rose above 70.

Alongside these firmly established resistance levels, the hotter PCE report could strengthen the US dollar and push interest rates higher, developments that have historically weighed on gold. This would be particularly significant if markets began to believe the Fed might be preparing to raise interest rates. The hotter-than-expected July PCE report has certainly brought that possibility back into the conversation, while Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole gives the Fed chair an opportunity to revive the debate.

If gold fails to break through resistance at $4,700, it is likely to pull back towards the support region between $4,350 and $4,400. If it manages to overcome resistance despite potential headwinds, it could advance towards the next resistance level at around $4,870.

Gold price, February 2026 – present

Source: TradingView, 26 August 2026

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