DAX steadies above 25,000 as oil and US data keep markets on edge

The DAX is trying to regain its footing above 25,000

After briefly slipping back below 25,000, the DAX is attempting to stabilise above that level again. The setback came after another burst of uncertainty around negotiations between the United States and Iran, which pushed oil prices higher and revived worries that energy could feed back into inflation expectations.

That move did not last long, but it was enough to remind traders how fragile sentiment can become when geopolitical headlines hit at the same time as equity markets are trading near stretched levels. For now, the DAX is holding up, but the market still looks sensitive to any fresh change in the Middle East narrative.

Oil and inflation fears are still shaping the near-term mood

The German source argues that the market reaction was driven less by a full repricing of growth and more by the fear that rising oil prices could keep inflation pressure elevated for longer. That matters because Europe is heading into a fresh CPI release while US labour-market data are also due, leaving investors with two near-term catalysts that could reinforce or challenge the inflation story.

If oil rises again while inflation data stay sticky, rate expectations may remain difficult to ease back. That would keep equity investors cautious, especially in markets like Germany where cyclical exposure is still meaningful even if the headline index continues to benefit from structural enthusiasm around technology and industrial exporters.

AI enthusiasm is still helping investors look through weaker macro signals

Even with geopolitics back in focus, investors are still showing a strong willingness to buy into AI and semiconductor themes whenever the headline risk cools. That has helped global equity indices, particularly in the United States, remain resilient and in some cases continue pushing to record highs.

The problem is that this enthusiasm is also encouraging markets to ignore softer cyclical signals. The source notes that in Asia, profit-taking hit some of the strongest semiconductor names, pulling both the Nikkei and the Kospi lower. That is a useful warning that momentum can remain powerful, but it does not remove the risk of sharper reversals if sentiment shifts.

JOLTS, eurozone inflation and central banks could decide the next move

Today's focus now shifts to eurozone inflation data and the JOLTS report from the United States. The labour market remains one of the key pillars of the US macro story, so any sign of a more meaningful slowdown could quickly feed into expectations for the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the next ECB meeting is approaching, which means European inflation data may start to matter even more for short-term positioning.

From a market perspective, that leaves the DAX caught between strong technical support around 25,000 and a still noisy macro backdrop. If the data are calm and geopolitical headlines fade, the index may try to work back towards the upper end of its recent range. If oil prices jump again or macro releases disappoint, the 25,000 mark could quickly come under pressure once more.